At 8:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (529) and the Indiana Pacers (530) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (57-36) snapped their two-game losing streak with their 121-91 victory as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday. Indiana (53-41) looks to stave off elimination as they now trail in this series by a 3-2 margin. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams have played three straight Unders in this series — and another lower-scoring game is likely tonight. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. New York outrebounded the Pacers by a 53-29 margin in Game Five — and they have played 23 of their last 34 games Under the Total after outrebounding their last opponent by 15 or more rebounds. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after outrebounding their previous opponent by 20 or more rebounds. The Knicks have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing three or more Unders in a row. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Indiana returns home where they have held the Knicks to 40.2% shooting and just 195 combined points in Games Three and Four. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers may be making 50.4% of their shots this season — but the Knicks have played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total against teams who are making at least 48% of their shots. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (529) and the Indiana Pacers (530). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (525) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (64-28) took a 3-2 series lead on Tuesday with their 112-97 victory as a 3.5-point favorite in Game Five. Minnesota (62-29) has lost three straight games in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets’ offensive explosion continued as they nailed 55.0% of their shots making it their third straight game where they made at least 53.7% of their shots. Denver has played 31 of their last 49 games Under the Total after shooting 50% or better from the field in their last two games — and they have played 7 straight Unders after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 27 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Minnesota should tighten things up on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 55.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. After Denver took 47% of their shots at the rim — and they made 73.5% of these attempts — look for Rudy Gobert to go back to protecting the rim and daring Aaron Gordon or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to beat them with their shooting in a hostile environment. The last three games in this series have finished Over the Total — but the Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 44 home games Under the Total after playing an Over in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. Minnesota has not covered the point spread in their last three games — and they have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Denver-Minnesota ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (525) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (526). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (525) in Game Six of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-29) has lost three straight games in this series after their 112-97 loss as a 3.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Denver (64-28) has taken a 3-2 series lead.  

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should tighten things up on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 55.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. After Denver took 47% of their shots at the rim — and made 73.5% of these attempts — look for Rudy Gobert to go back to protecting the rim and daring Aaron Gordon or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to beat them with their shooting in a hostile environment. The last three games in this series have finished Over the Total — but the Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after losing their last game. The youth and depth of this Minnesota team should help them tonight since they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in ten days. Denver's offensive explosion continued in Game Five as they nailed 55.0% of their shots making it their third straight game where they made at least 53.7% of their shots. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 49 games after making 55.0% or more of their shots in their last game. They have covered the point spread in their last three victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. Additionally, Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home against a Northwest Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a double-digit win at home. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 35 opportunities when motivated by revenge. 8* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves (526) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (523) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (524) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (56-36) had won two games in a row in this series before their 100-96 upset victory as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday. Oklahoma City (63-27) has won 11 of their last 13 games while evening this series at 2-2. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The hobbled health of Luka Doncic continues to impact his effectiveness. He is only scoring 22.0 Points-Per-Game in this series — and he is making only 39% of his shots including just 31% of his 3-point attempts. The Mavericks have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then played 29 of their last 43 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Dallas continues to compete on the other end of the court — they have held the Thunder to just 101 and 100 points in their last two games. The Mavericks have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. Oklahoma City has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less — and they have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset victory on the road. The Thunder have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Furthermore, Oklahoma City has not allowed more than 105 points in their last two games — and they have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game. They have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total after playing their two previous games on the road. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 7 of their 8 games Under the Total with the total set in the 210s — and they have played 3 of these last 4 games Under the Total when playing on the road. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (523) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (524). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:35 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) and the Denver Nuggets (520) in Game Five of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-28) has lost the last two games in this series after their 115-107 upset loss as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Denver (63-38) has evened this series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves need to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 57.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 61 games. Minnesota has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. And while the last two games finished Over the Total, the Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after playing two or more games in a row Over the Total. Denver enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 13 contests by making 57.0% of their shots. They shot 53.7% of their shots in Game Three — but they have then played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total after making 50.0% of their shots in two or more games in a row. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win on the road against a Northwest Division rival — and they have played 35 of their last 60 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row. They return home where they have played 25 of their last 37 home games Under the Total when favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 20 of their last 31 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 100 or more points. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (519) and the Denver Nuggets (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (56-36) has lost the last two games of this series after their 121-89 loss on the road to the Pacers as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. Indiana (53-40) has won six of their last nine games while evening this best-of-seven series at 2-2.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINT(S): The Knicks are a M*A*S*H unit right now with O.G. Anunoby now out indefinitely and enjoying Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and Bojan Bogdanovic in street clothes for this team. But if there is a silver lining to a loss by 32 points, it is that the starting five got benched and rested for this crucial fifth game. Returning home to a raucous Madison Square Garden, expect an inspired effort from Jalen Brunson and company. New York has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Knicks have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a double-digit loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after losing two games in a row on the road. New York only made 33.7% of their shots on Sunday which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 games — but they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last contest. They also allowed the Pacers to make 56.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive performance in their last 35 contests. Games Three and Four finished Under the Total — and the Knicks have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after playing two or more Unders in a row. Furthermore, New York has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Indiana played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Knicks to 33.7% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last ten games by nailing 56.8% of their shots. But the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win at home by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win by 30 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 30 of their last 44 games after a point spread win. Indiana is dealing with their own injuries — most notably, Tyrese Haliburton has been slowed with back spasms and a right ankle. This might be the game he needs to exhale after leading his team to two victories at home. The Pacers go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games with the Total set in the 210s. 

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA 2nd Round Eastern Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the New York Knicks (518) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (517). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (515) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (516) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (62-27) was on a 10-game winning streak before losing the last two games in this series after their 105-101 loss on the road against the Mavericks on Saturday. Dallas (56-35) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINT(S): Oklahoma City should play better tonight — they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games after a loss by six points or less. They have also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after playing a game where neither team scored more than 105 points in their last game. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing two of their last three games. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 38 road games as an underdog of up to six points. The strong play they have demonstrated on the defensive end of the court should help them tonight — they are holding their playoff opponents to just 41.1% shooting which is resulting in only 96.7 Points-Per-Game. Dallas has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after winning their last game by six points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning their previous game by four points or less. Luka Doncic only scored 22 points on 7 of 17 shooting (41.1%) shooting — and he missed three of his four shots from behind the arc. With Doncic still nursing a sprained right knee and now a sore left ankle issue, his effectiveness will continue to be a question — and don’t underestimate the struggles he may have on defense. A less than full-strength Doncic is a problem for a Mavericks team that has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +6.0 or more Points-Per-Game. The Thunder are outscoring their opponents by +7.4 PPG this season. 

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when avenging a loss on the road. 10* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Oklahoma City Thunder (515) plus the point(s) versus the Dallas Mavericks (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (511) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (62-27) had won six games in a row before their 117-90 loss to the Nuggets as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Denver (62-28) won their first game in this series but still trail by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota should play much better on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. They also made only 43.7% of their shots in what was the worst shooting performance in their last 12 contests. The T-Wolves have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home after a straight-up loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset loss by double-digits. Minnesota stays at home where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Denver enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last ten games with their 53.7% shooting clip. They also played their best defensive game in their last games by holding the T-Wolves to 43.7% shooting. But the Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against a Northwest Division rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 20 or more points against a division opponent.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Denver-Minnesota ABC-TV Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) minus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512) in Game Four of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (62-28) won their first game in this series with their 117-90 victory as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. Minnesota (62-27) had won six games in a row before that loss — they hold a 2-1 lead in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets enjoyed their best overall shooting game in over a month. Their 53.7% shooting percentage from the field was their best mark in their last ten games. They made 14 of their 28 shots (50%) from behind the arc. They scored at a 112.4 points per 100 possession rate in the half-court which was their most efficient clip in the postseason by 11 points. They scored 37 points in the third quarter alone. Head coach Michael Malone made two key adjustments to unlock the offense: (1) he had Nikola Jokic or Aaron Gordon dribble the ball up the court to ask less of Jamal Murray and (2) he emphasized getting the ball across mid-court in two to three seconds to quicker get into their half-court offense. It worked — but now the onus is on the Timberwolves’ head coach Chris Finch and his coaching staff to determine their counter move with the two days of preparation. Furthermore, the ongoing concern for this team is their lack of depth combined with their lingering injury situation. Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Reggie Jackson are all questionable with injuries -- and even if they play, their continuing effectiveness will be a concern. Denver also increased their intensity on defense. The biggest tactical change was that Jokic was less concerned with defending the paint to instead use his length to disrupt things on the perimeter. The Timberwolves only made 10 of their 33 shots (30%) from behind the arc despite attempting 45% of their shots from 3-point range. The Nuggets have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win on the road against an Atlantic Division rival. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win on the road by double-digits. Additionally, they have played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total after a win by 10 or more points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They have played 20 of their last 33 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. And in their last 13 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range, Denver has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Minnesota will not be as sluggish as they were in Game Three — but they ranked a mediocre 12th in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half-court. Jokic daring Karl-Anthony Towns to attack the glass may be worth the risk since KAT so often becomes passive and settles for outside shots. Towns only scored 14 points on a mere seven shots from the field on Friday. The T-Wolves should play much better on defense after allowing the Nuggets to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. Minnesota has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on their home court — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss at home to a Northwest Division rival. And while Game Three finished Under the Total, the Timberwolves have played 30 of their last 43 home games Under the Total after playing an Under in their last game. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging an upset loss — and they have played 18 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from a loss where they allowed 110 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (511) and the Minnesota Timberwolves (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (505) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (506) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (62-26) had their ten-game winning streak snapped in a 119-110 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 5-point favorite on Thursday. Dallas (55-35) has won five of their last seven games while evening this series at 1-1. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City has been playing great basketball this postseason — it is telling that the Mavericks’ 46.7% shooting percentage was the worst defensive performance in their last seven games. Head coach Mark Daigneault has some adjustments available to him. Look for the Thunder to be more focused on pressuring the Mavericks off the 3-point line and coaxing them to rely on Luka Doncic in the half-court. Doncic rebounded on Thursday by scoring 29 points on 11 of 21 shooting — but he remains hampered by a nagging right knee injury. Expect Aaron Wiggins to continue to get more playing time for Josh Giddey as well — Oklahoma City was outplayed by -20 points in the 13 minutes he played in Game Two. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss at home. They had covered the point spread in four straight games before Thursday’s nine-point loss — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They should continue to benefit from all the time off they earned after sweeping New Orleans in the first round — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. Oklahoma City has also covered the point spread in 23 of their last 37 road games as an underdog of up to six points. Dallas got a surprising shooting performance from P.J. Washington who nailed 7 of his 10 shots from behind the arc on Thursday. But Kyrie Irving’s 9 points from 2 of 8 shooting is cause for concern — especially when considering how important Game Two was for them with Doncic not 100%. As it is, the Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after an upset victory. And while that final score flew Over the 217.5-point Total, Dallas has then failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 home games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 27 games when avenging a loss where their opponent scored at least 110 points. 25* NBA Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (505) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (506). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR FRIDAY, 5/10:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Friday was with Over the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets and the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver (61-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-80 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. The Nuggets go on the road where they have played 6 straight Overs with the Total set in the 200-209.5 point range. They have also played 4 of their last 5 third games in a playoff series Over the Total. Minnesota (62-26) has won six games in a row — and they have played 24 of their last 39 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Timberwolves have held the Nuggets to no more than 99 points in this series — and they have played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last two games. Take the Over. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports made it FOUR STRAIGHT WINNERS this week to fuel their 41 of 65 (63%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays after a 2-0 Thursday sweep! Frank CA$HED the Dallas-Oklahoma City Over to continue his long-running 91 of 150 (61%) NBA featured play run — and now he furthers his 5 of 7 (71%) NBA Game of the Year/Month sides mark with his 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver-Minnesota ATS winner on ESPN at 9:35 PM ET! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 9:35 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504) in Game Three of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-28) has lost three of their last four games after their 106-80 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (62-26) has won six games in a row as they return home with a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS PLUS THE POINTS: The Timberwolves entered this series feisty to dethrone the defending NBA champions who ousted them from the playoffs last season. Anthony Edwards is generating comparisons to Michael Jordan. Slow down. I still expect this to be a long series. Denver lost a close game in the opener of this series — and they were simply flat in Game Two perhaps thinking they could casually flip the switch. They only made 34.9% of their shots which was the second worst shooting effort of their season and lowest field goal percentage in their last 73 games. Nikola Jokic was too passive on Monday as he often deferred to his teammates on offense. After receiving the Most Valuable Player Award on Wednesday after that embarrassing effort in Game Two, expect a very aggressive Joker tonight. And look for the Nuggets to get back to playing harder on defense — especially in transition where they have surrendered points at a whopping 190 points per 100 possession rate. Championship lethargy is nearly undefeated — but Denver has also demonstrated consistent resiliency after bad efforts in the Jokic era. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset loss by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 straight games after a double-digit loss to a Northwest Division rival. They have failed to cover the point spread in four straight games and in five of their last six games — but they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The four days off this week should help them readjust mentally to the challenge of this series — and it should help players like Jamal Murray get healthier. Denver has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing for no more than the third time in ten days. They have allowed the T-Wolves to make 52.4% and 50% in both games in this series — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after allowing two straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. More activity on defense should help — after forcing 14 turnovers that generated into 26 points in Game One, the Nuggets forced 12 turnovers in Game Two but only got two points from them. More focus and attention on the restricted area should also pay dividends. After averaging 29 shots per game in the restricted area last round against the Lakers, they are averaging 27.7 shots per game in the restricted area this round but making only 54.5% of these shots. Minnesota won Game Two even without Rudy Gobert who missed the game due to the birth of his child. But a letdown may be coming now — the Timberwolves have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 home games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in the previous 3 times in the last three years they were riding a six-game point spread cover run. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing no more than 90 points in their last game. Holding Denver to just 34.9% shooting was the best defensive effort in their last 34 games. The Regression Gods are probably due to make an appearance regarding their shooting in this series as well. They are making 40.4% of their 3s against Denver — and they are nailing 49% of their midrange jumpers including 50% of their long midrange shots which leads all teams in the second round of the playoffs. The Timberwolves return home — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games at home when favored by up to six points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss as a home favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing with revenge from a loss at home by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Northwest Division Game of the Year with the Denver Nuggets (503) plus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (504). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:05 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (502) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (501) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-40) has lost three of their last four games after their 130-121 loss on the road to the Knicks as a 4.5-point underdog on Wednesday. New York (56-34) has won four of their last five games while taking a 2-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana made a healthy 51.6% of their shots — but that was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. Of greater concern is that they allowed the Knicks to nail 57.0% of their shots in what was the worst defensive performance in their last 44 games. Expect the Pacers to play better on that end of the court tonight — and look for head coach Rick Carlisle to give more minutes to T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin since they are two of the team’s better defensive players. The Knicks made 53.7% of their shots in Game One — but Indiana has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games after allowing their last two opponents to make at least 50% of their shots. Their last three opponents are averaging a 51.0% shooting clip against them — but they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 home games after allowing their last three opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after allowing 130 or more points in their last game. Additionally, the Pacers have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 29 of their last 40 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. New York enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 18 games by making 57.0% of their shots. They were fortunate to nail 67% of their contested shots — but they did only make 44% of their uncontested shots so perhaps the magic changes now away from Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after making 55.0% or more of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in their 3 games this season when they scored 130 or more points. They are becoming a M*A*S*H unit now — Mitchell Robinson suffered a season-ending injury in Game One and O.G. Anunoby is out tonight from an injury on Wednesday. Even Jalen Brunson is questionable tonight with a right foot injury. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 opportunities for revenge. 8* NBA Friday Daily Discounted Deal with the Indiana Pacers (502) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (501). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:35 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (565) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (566) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-35) had won two games in a row before their 117-95 loss on the road against the Thunder as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Oklahoma City (62-25) has won 10 games in a row while taking a 1-0 lead in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas only made 39.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Luka Doncic does not appear to be too close to 100% as he deals with a right knee injury. After scoring 33.9 Points-Per-Game in the regular season, he is down more than five PPG to 28.3 PPG in the postseason. But the impact of his injury is even more pronounced on the other end of the court where he is often not much inspired to play tough defense anyways. If Doncic continues to be ineffective in the half-court, Kyrie Irving will need to take more responsibility in leading the offensive attack. The injury to Maxi Kleber is also impacting this team as he offers them a versatile defender when he is healthy. As it is, the Mavericks have played 22 of their last 33-second games in an NBA playoff series Over the Total. They have also played 31 of their last 47 games in the second round of the playoffs Over the Total. Oklahoma City has played 22 of their last 35 games Over the Total after a straight-up win at home — and they have played 25 of their last 37 games Over the Total after a double-digit win on their home court. The Thunder have also played 10 of their last 12 home games Over the Total when playing for the second time in five days. Oklahoma City is playing great defense — the 39.3% field goal percentage of Dallas was the highest that the Thunder have allowed in their last three games. OKC has played three straight Unders — but they have played 25 of their last 39 games Over the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 14 of their last 20 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (565) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (566). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:05 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (561) and the New York Knicks (562) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (51-39) has lost two of their last three games after their 121-117 loss on the road to the Knicks as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. New York (55-34) has won 10 of their last 12 games.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Pacers allowed the Knicks to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 games — but it was also the third time in their last four games where they allowed their opponent to make at least 51.1% of their shots from the field. Indiana does not have a defensive answer to Jalen Brunson who scored 43 points and got to the free-throw line 14 times on Monday. The Pacers have played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a loss on the road. Additionally, Indiana has played 41 of their last 68 games Over the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. This is just the fifth time all season that they are playing in a game with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range — and they have played 3 of those previous 4 games Over the Total. New York has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have also played 22 of their last 33 games Over the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. The Knicks have played 19 of their 27 games this season Over the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 10 of their last 14 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210-219.5 point range. New York has played three straight Overs — and they have played 25 of their last 41 games Over the Total following a game that finished Over the Total. Additionally, they have played 16 of their last 24 games Over the Total after playing two or more Overs in a row — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Over the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Knicks will be without Mitchell Robinson indefinitely after he suffered a stress fracture in his left ankle on Monday — and that means more playing time for Precious Achiwa. Achiwa means higher scores at the margins since he is not as good a defensive player as Robinson — but he does offer more on the perimeter. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have played 56 of their last 92 games Over the Total when avenging a same-season loss. 10* NBA Indiana-New York TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (561) and the New York Knicks (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (557) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (558) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (54-34) has won four of their last five games after their 114-101 victory against the Los Angeles Clippers as an 8-point favorite on Friday to end that series in six games. Oklahoma City (61-25) has won nine games in a row after their 97-89 victory at New Orleans as a 4.5-point favorite last Monday to complete that four-game sweep. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Dallas found their offensive groove in the second half of their series with the Clippers. Their 48.2% field goal percentage in Game Six on Friday was the worst shooting mark in their last three games — they have scored 116.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. Luka Doncic has been very productive when playing on the road — and he has been particularly effective when playing with at least three days of rest. In those ten games this season, he is scoring 35.6 PPG. The Mavericks have played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Oklahoma City held the Pelicans to just 37.6% shooting to close out that series in Game Four which was the best defensive effort in their last four games. They also made only 42.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 11 games. The Thunder have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. And while they have held their last two opponents to 38.5% or worse shooting, they have then played 4 straight Overs after not allowing their last two opponents to make at least 39.0% of their shots. Both those games finished Under the Total — and they have played 25 of their last 38 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. They host the first two games of this series where they have played 16 of their last 27 home games Over the Total with the Total set in the 210s — and they have played 8 of their last 13 home games Over the Total when favored by up to six points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Thunder won three of the four games between these two teams in the regular season after a 135-86 victory on the final day of the regular season on April 14th. The Mavericks have played 16 of their last 23 games Over the Total when on the road and playing with revenge — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Tuesday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (557) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (553) in Game Two of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-27) has lost two of their last three games after their 106-99 upset loss at home to the Timberwolves as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Minnesota (61-26) has won five games in a row after that triumph. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver allowed the Timberwolves to nail 52.4% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last seven games. The Nuggets should play better tonight after that wake-up call which cost them a home-court advantage in this series. Denver has rebounded to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a straight-up loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss at home. And while the Nuggets have not covered the point spread in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after only covering the point spread once in their last four contests. Minnesota enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 12 games by making 52.4% of their shots. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in five straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in five or more games in a row. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season after winning three or more games in a row. Minnesota has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after winning five or more games in a row. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 home games when playing with revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when avenging an upset loss at home. 20* NBA Monday Late Show Bailout with the Denver Nuggets (554) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (556) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (555) in Game One of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (54-34) has won nine of their last 11 games after upsetting Philadelphia by a 118-115 score as a 3-point underdog to end that series in six games on Thursday. Indiana (51-38) has won eight of their last 11 games after their 120-98 win against Milwaukee as a 6-point favorite to end that series in six games on Thursday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS MINUS THE POINTS: The Pacers held an undermanned Bucks team to just 42.2 % which was their best defensive effort in their last 13 games. They also made 54.1% of their shots which was the best shooting performance in their last four games. But Indiana has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory by 20 or more points on their home court. Furthermore, the Pacers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set in the 210s. Indiana has a depth advantage in this series — but with both teams playing with four days of rest, the Knicks’ seven-man rotation should not be an issue tonight. New York has great chemistry led by their Villanova trio of Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart, and Donte DiVincenzo. When those three former Wildcats join O.G. Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein in the starting lineup, they have a strong Adjusted Net Efficiency margin of +15.1. And when Miles McBride replaces Anunoby to play with those four, the Knicks post a +33.1 Adjusted Net Efficiency which is the second-best mark for any group of five who have played at least 200 minutes together. New York has covered the point spread in 51 of their last 85 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 

FINAL TAKE: Indiana won two of the three meetings between these teams in the regular season — but New York won the only time the current starting lineups went up against each other in a 109-105 victory at Madison Square Garden on February 1st. The Pacers won the final time these two teams played back on February 10th by a 125-111 score at MSG — but the Knicks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 opportunities to avenge a loss at home. New York has also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 32 games when playing with revenge from a loss by double-digits. 10* NBA Indiana-Milwaukee TNT Special with the New York Knicks (556) minus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (555). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546) in Game Seven of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (50-38) forced a decisive Game Seven in this series with their 103-96 victory at home against the Cavaliers as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Cleveland (51-37) has lost three of their last four games.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Magic took Game Six despite allowing the Cavaliers to make 48.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. Orlando finished the regular season ranked third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. In this series, they have held Cleveland to just 44.0% shooting which has resulted in only 94.2 Points-Per-Game. But the Magic are only making 43.4% of their shots in this series resulting in just 101.3 PPG themselves. Their shooting has been worse on the road where they have only made 38.1% of their shots including 25.2% of their 3s in their three games in Cleveland in this series. The Magic are scoring just 90.7 PPG in those three games while scoring more than 86 points only once. Orlando has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while the Magic have eight fewer personal fouls in each of the last two games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after committing at least five fewer personal fouls than their opponent in two straight games. Cleveland enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last seven games by making 48.8% of their shots on Friday. But the Cavaliers have not scored more than 104 points in this series — and they have not scored more than 97 points in five of the six games. Cleveland has played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 105 points in three or more games in a row. They have also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where neither team scored more than 105 points. The foul situation in the last two games has helped Orlando take 16 and 10 more shots at the free throw line as well — and the Cavaliers have played 24 of their last 34 home games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where they took at least 10 fewer shots at the charity stripe.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 25* NBA 1st Round Eastern Conference Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (545) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (546). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (530) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (529) in Game One of their Western Conference Semifinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (61-26) has won five of their last six games after their 108-106 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. Minnesota (60-26) has won four games in a row after completing their four-game sweep against the Phoenix Suns with a 122-116 victory as a pick ‘em on Sunday. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver only made 31.4% of their shots from behind the arc in their series against the Lakers. They shoot 38.4% from 3-point land when playing at home — and they converted on 39% of their 3s in the playoffs against the Timberwolves last year. The Nuggets have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 48 games at home after winning three of their last four games. And in their last 17 games when playing with three or more days of rest, Denver has covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. Minnesota controlled the offensive glass against the Suns — they grabbed 36% of their missed shots in that series. But the Timberwolves pulled down only 21.6% of their missed shots against the Nuggets in their playoff series last year. Minnesota had it easy against Phoenix — but this is now a big step up in competition. As it is, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning four or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a win by six points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Denver won the series in five games against the Timberwolves last season — and the Nuggets have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 opening games to a new playoff series when their starting five is healthy. 10* NBA Minnesota-Denver TNT Special with the Denver Nuggets (530) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (529). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (527) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (528) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-34) has lost six of their last eight games after their 123-93 loss at home to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Dallas (53-34) has a 3-2 series lead with the chance to close out the series tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Clippers allowed the Mavericks to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 contests. They miss Kawhi Leonard who remains an outstanding defender — but head coach Ty Lue will demand a better effort from his players on that end of the court. They should shoot better than 37.9% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games in this series. Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 36 games when trailing in the playoff series. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last nine games by nailing 54.0% of their shots. And they played their best game on the other end of the court in their last three games by holding the Clippers to a 37.9% field goal percentage. The Mavericks were red-hot down the stretch by winning 16 of 18 games before tanking the final two regular season games since their spot as the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs was clinched. But only one of their 16 victories during that stretch was against a top-six seed in either conference — and that upset win at home against Denver required a miracle buzzer-beating shot from Kyrie Irving to steal that game. Dallas is below .500 with a 25-28 straight-up record against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better.

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss of 30 or more points. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Los Angeles Clippers (527) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528) in Game Six of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (53-34) has lost six of their last eight games after their 123-93 loss at home to the Mavericks on Wednesday. Dallas (53-34) has a 3-2 series lead with the chance to close out the series tonight. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Clippers allowed the Mavericks to make 54.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 16 contests. They miss Kawhi Leonard who remains an outstanding defender — but head coach Ty Lue will demand a better effort from his players on that end of the court. Leonard will miss tonight’s game as well as he, as always, manages his knee problem — and the Clippers also miss his scoring. Los Angeles has not scored more than 93 points in three of the last four games in this series. The Clippers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a loss by 10 or more points — and they have played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 4 straight Unders after losing six or seven of their last eight games. They have played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in five days. And in their last 13 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, Los Angeles has played 8 of these games Under the Total. Dallas enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last nine games by nailing 54.0% of their shots. The Mavs should continue to be tough to score on in this series. The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline transformed the defensive makeup of this team. Since February 5th, they ranked third in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage after previously ranking 26th in the league. And in their last 15 games in the regular season, they led the NBA by holding their opponents to 106.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions. Dallas has played 23 of their last 33 games Under the Total after a win on the road by 10 or more points. They have also played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a victory by 30 or more points. Furthermore, the Mavericks have played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games at home Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. 

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on their home court — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total when on the road playing with revenge from a same-season loss. 25* NBA 1st Round Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Clippers (527) and the Dallas Mavericks (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the New York Knicks (511) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset loss in overtime at home to the 76ers as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Philadelphia (50-38) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE KNICKS PLUS THE POINTS: New York should play better tonight as they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing to an Atlantic Division rival. They go back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 38 games after playing their previous game at home. Philadelphia has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after an upset win as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after an upset win as a road dog. The 76ers have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win against a divisional rival. 

FINAL TAKE: The Knicks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 8* NBA Thursday Late Show Bailout with the New York Knicks (511) plus the points versus the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (53-34) has lost two of the last three games in this series after their 112-106 upset loss in overtime at home to the 76ers as a 4-point underdog on Tuesday. Philadelphia (50-38) still trails by a 3-2 margin in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It took overtime for Game Five to finish Over the Total — that game was tied at 97 at the end of regulation. The Knicks made 46.5% of their shots which was their second-best shooting effort in this series. But New York’s 3-point shooting has collapsed. After only making 7 of their 27 shots from behind the arc, they shot just 10 of their 36 shots from 3-point range on Tuesday — that’s a 27.0% shooting percentage from 3-point land in their last two games. The Knicks have not shot better than 43% in three of the five games in this series. But they are playing tough defense led by O.G. Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein. They are holding the Sixers to a low 54.8% shooting percentage at the rim. New York has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after an upset loss at home. And while they have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Philadelphia only made 48.1% of their shots at the rim on Tuesday. And despite them making 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) from behind the arc, they only scored at a 110.9 points per 100 possession rate. For comparison's sake, the 76ers scored at a 116.3 points per 100 adjusted possession rate in the regular season — and their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in Game Five would rank 26th in the league if extended for the entire season. Joel Embiid deserves credit for taking the court — but he is so banged up with several maladies including his chronic left knee and now Bell's palsy. He needs rest — and he simply is not in the physical state to take his game down low. Instead, he is trying to survive out on the perimeter — but in his last two games, he is making only 36.8% of his shots including just a 20% shooting mark from behind the arc. Philadelphia has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset victory. The Sixers have also played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with the Total set from 200 to 209.5.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 7 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-pint range. The Knicks have played 13 of their last 22 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (511) and the Philadelphia 76ers (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513) in Game Six of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (50-38) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 115-92 upset loss on the road to the Bucks as a 5-point road favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee (51-36) still trails in this series by a 3-2 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana allowed the Bucks to make 52.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. They also let them shoot 51.1% from the field in Game Four — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 23 games after allowing their last two opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. The Pacers have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss to a Central Division rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss to a divisional opponent. Additionally, Indiana has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a double-digit setback. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 36 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after a point spread loss. Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable as he deals with back spasms but he should continue to play through the pain. Despite being without the injured Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, Milwaukee enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last eight games with their 52.4% field goal percentage. Khris Middleton and Bobby Portis both scored 29 points — and even Patrick Beverley stepped up with 13 points and 12 rebounds. But with Antetokounmpo and Lillard not likely to the court again tonight, it is difficult to expect these players to approach those numbers again. As it is, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset win by 10 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset victory by 15 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 46 of their last 68 games after an upset win against a Central Division opponent. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their 41 games this season. The Bucks have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 29 road games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games as an underdog getting up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when avenging a same-season loss. Additionally, the Pacers have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games when avenging a loss by 20 or more points. 10* NBA Milwaukee-Indiana TNT Special with the Indiana Pacers (514) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (513). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (505) and the Los Angeles Clippers (506) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (52-34) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-111 upset loss at home to the Clippers on Monday. Los Angeles (53-33) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mavericks fell behind by 30 points — but they almost rallied to steal that game. They made 49.4% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six games. But they allowed the Clippers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Dallas has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last nine contests by making 53.7% of their shots -- even without the injured Kawhi Leonard. They also played their worst defensive game in their last 12 contests by allowing the Mavs to shoot 49.4% from the field. The Clippers have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a win by six points or less. Their victory snapped a two-game losing streak — and they have also played 16 of their last 22 games at home Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They return home where they have played 11 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 10 of their last 15 games on the road when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Clippers have played 13 of their last 16 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (505) and the Los Angeles Clippers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (505) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (506) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (52-34) has lost four of their last six games after their 116-111 upset loss at home to the Clippers on Monday. Los Angeles (53-33) evened this series at 2-2 with the victory. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Mavericks may have gotten complacent in Game Four with the news that Kawhi Leonard would not play due to his right knee. Los Angeles raced out of the gates to take a huge 30-point lead in the first half and went into the locker room with a 66-49 lead. Dallas battled back and almost stole the game — but they dug themselves too big a hole. They should start this game much better and play better on defense. They allowed the Clippers to make 53.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last four games. Since February 5th, they ranked third in the NBA in opponent’s effective field goal percentage after previously ranking 26th in the league. And in their last 15 games in the regular season, they led the NBA by holding their opponents to 106.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions. The additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline transformed the defensive makeup of this team. The Mavericks have been resilient after bad losses as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after an upset loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing for the second time in five days. Dallas goes back on the road where they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games when favored by six points or less. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 road games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting game in their last nine contests by making 53.7% of their shots. Paul George and James Harden combined to make 11 of their 15 shots from behind the arc — but they are not likely to repeat a 73% shooting percentage from 3-point range. The Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after pulling off an upset win on the road including those last five circumstances. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after enjoying a halftime of 15 or more points. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when playing with two days of rest. They will once again be without Leonard who is still nursing his right knee. Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 6 games at home as the dog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 9 straight games on the road when avenging a loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games on the road when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 25* NBA 1st Round Western Conference Playoff Game of the Year with the Dallas Mavericks (505) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (506). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (567) and the Milwaukee Bucks (568) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (50-37) has won three games in a row in this series after their 126-113 victory as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (50-36) has lost five of their last six games and now trails in this series by a 3-1 margin. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Pacers pulled out Game Four despite allowing the Bucks to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. Indiana has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, the Pacers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road as the favorite. Despite being without the injured Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, Milwaukee made 51.1% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. Antetokounmpo and Lillard are doubtful to play tonight. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They have also played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing five of their last six games. Milwaukee has also played 11 of their last 18 games Under the Total as an underdog. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a double-digit loss. 8* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana Pacers (567) and the Milwaukee Bucks (568). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (570) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (569) in Game Five of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (50-36) has lost two games in a row in this series after their 112-89 loss on the road to the Magic as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Orlando (49-37) has evened this best-of-seven series at 2-2. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS MINUS THE POINTS: Cleveland allowed Orlando to make 55.8% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last eight games. The Magic made 51.1% of their shots against them in their 38-point victory in Game Three on Thursday as well — but the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing 50% or better shooting from their opponent in two games in a row. Cleveland should play better tonight after getting blown in both games in Orlando. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after a loss by 10 or more points on the road. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a loss by 15 or more points. And in their last 7 games after losing two games in a row by double-digits, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Cleveland has not scored more than 97 points in this series — but they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 105 points in four or more games in a row. They return home where they rank 10th in the NBA in the regular season in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they make 48.6% of their shots on their home court including 37.7% of their 3s resulting in 113.7 Points-Per-Game. The Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 home games as a pick ‘em or as a favorite of up to six points. They have also covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after losing of their last three games. Orlando enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last 25 games by making 55.8% of their shots on Saturday. But the Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after winning two games in a row by 20 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games when playing for no more than the fourth time in the last ten days. Orlando has a 31-11 record when playing at home — and their +2.2 Adjusted Net Efficiency margin at home ranks 12th in the league. But it is a different story on the road where they drop to 18th in the NBA with an Adjusted Net Efficiency rating of -3.5. They fall to 23rd in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing on the road where they score -2.5 fewer PPG and make -1.5% fewer shots. Their play on defense is not as good on the road either as they allow their home hosts to make 48.3% of their shots resulting in 111.3 PPG which is +1.1% and +3.7 PPG above their season average. Overall, the Magic have an under .500 18-26 record away from home where they get outscored by -3.8 PPG. Orlando has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games on the road with the Total set from 200 to 209.5. 

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games when playing with double-revenge motivations. 25* NBA Game of the Month with the Cleveland Cavaliers (570) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (569). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562) in Game Five of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (50-38) avoided the sweep and snapped an 11-game losing streak to the Nuggets with a 119-108 upset victory at home as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. Denver (60-26) had won four games in a row before that loss. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets may be without Jamal Murray tonight who is questionable with a calf injury. Murray scored 21.2 Points-Per-Game in the regular season while dishing out 6.5 Assists-Per-Game — and he is one of their best deep threats by making 42.5% of his 3s. Reggie Jackson will take his likely take his place in the starting lineup — but he is banged up with an ankle injury and has been battling an illness for more than a week. Denver needs to tighten things up on defense after allowing the Lakers to make 52.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five games. The Nuggets have played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They return home where they have played 9 straight Unders against teams from the Pacific Division opponents. They have also played 16 of their last 19 games Under the Total after playing their last two games on the road. Los Angeles enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last five contests by making 52.2% of their shots. They got 22 points from D’Angelo Russell — but his scoring remains erratic after he put up a doughnut in Game Three. The Lakers have played 3 of their 4 games Under the Total after an upset win by double-digits. Los Angeles goes back on the road where they scored only 103 and 99 points in the opening two games of this series. They did hold the Nuggets to just 107.5 PPG in those contests. The Lakers have played 10 of their last 12 games Under the Total on the road against teams with a winning record. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the first round of the playoffs. 

FINAL TAKE: Denver has played 27 of their last 45 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 point range — and they have played 4 of their last 6 potential close-out games in the playoffs. 25* NBA Playoff Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (561) and the Denver Nuggets (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (555) and the Phoenix Suns (556) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (59-26) has won the first three games of this series as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 126-109 victory on the road against the Suns as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday. Phoenix (49-36) hopes to stave off elimination trailing 3-0 in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Phoenix head coach Frank Vogel did not make many changes in Game Three — he apparently thought that the return home would be enough to spark his veteran team to play better. Nope. The local media is ripping the Suns for their lack of effort — especially on the defensive end of the court. Phoenix allowed the Timberwolves to score at a 132.6 points per 100 adjusted possession rate on Friday as they continue to have their way crashing the rim. Vogel has to address this — whether it be changing to a zone defense or changing one-on-one assignments, the Suns have to get Minnesota shooting farther away from the basket. Not wanting to end their season with another embarrassing loss in front of their home fans, expect this team to at least play much harder on that end of the court tonight. As it is, Phoenix has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss by 15 or more points — and they have played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total after an upset loss by 15 or more points. The Suns' lack of effort also showed on with their energy on the boards — they got outrebounded by a whopping 50-28 margin in Game Three. Minnesota pulled down 37.2% of their missed shots — Phoenix can clean much of that up by simply playing harder. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a game where they got out-rebounded by 20 or more boards. The Suns have only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after falling to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. Phoenix stays at home where they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 22 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. Minnesota has played 15 of their last 24 games Under the Total after a win by 15 or more points. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after an upset win by 15 or more points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset win on the road by 15 or more points. Additionally, the Timberwolves have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. And in their last 11 games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 15 or more boards, they have played 7 of these games Under the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Suns have played 36 of their last 58 games Under the Total when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (555) and the Phoenix Suns (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (555) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (59-26) has won the first three games of this series as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 126-109 victory on the road against the Suns as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday. Phoenix (49-36) hopes to stave off elimination trailing 3-0 in this series. 

REASONS TO THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINTS: Minnesota has won all three of the games in this series by 12 or more points. If they were significant road favorites tonight, I might have been persuaded to take the Suns in a save-face spot to avoid getting swept with some point-spread insurance. But with the market moving on Kevin Durant (once again), let’s jump on the better team in a pick ‘em situation (or even as an underdog in some spots). As it is, the Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after an upset win by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning two or more games in a row by double-digits. Minnesota has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The T-Wolves outrebounded the Suns by a 50-28 margin on Friday — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after outrebounding their last opponent by 20 or more rebounds. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when not playing for more than the fourth time in ten days. And in their last 24 road games with the Total set in the 210s, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of these contests. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last five games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in four of their last five games. Additionally, the Suns have failed to cover the point spread when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. 

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games as a pick ‘em or as an underdog getting up to six points. 8* NBA Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves (555) minus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (556). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (553) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (553) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (49-37) has won six of their last eight games after their 121-118 win in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. Milwaukee (50-35) lost for the fourth time in their last five games and now trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Bucks will be without Damian Lillard tonight after he first twisted his ankle in Game Three before later wrenching his Achilles in the fourth quarter. While Lillard declared that he expected to play after the game, he was in a walking boot yesterday and was listed as doubtful. Milwaukee does not want to risk Lillard aggravating that injury the way Golden State did with Kevin Durant a few years ago. The team is already without Giannis Antetokounmpo who is doubtful to return from his calf injury. Khris Middleton stepped up with 42 points on Friday — but now he is being asked to carry the team on offense which is not his strength. Lillard scored 28 points in Game Three. As it is, the Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a loss to a Central Division rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games on the road as an underdog. Indiana has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 38 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 44 games when playing for the second time in five days. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. 8* NBA Milwaukee-Indiana TNT Special with the Indiana Pacers (553) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Milwaukee (50-35) lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 121-118 loss in overtime as a 6.5-point underdog on Friday. Indiana (49-37) has won six of their last eight games while taking a 2-1 lead in this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks will likely be without Damian Lillard tonight after he first twisted his ankle in Game Three before later wrenching his Achilles in the fourth quarter. While Lillard declared that he expected to play after the game, he was in a walking boot yesterday and was listed as doubtful. Milwaukee probably does not want to risk Lillard aggravating that injury the way Golden State did with Kevin Durant a few years ago. The team is already without Giannis Antetokounmpo who is doubtful to return from his calf injury. Even if one (or both) of these players take the court, neither is likely to be close to 100%. Khris Middleton stepped up with 42 points on Friday — but now he is being asked to carry the team on offense which is not his strength. Lillard scored 28 points in Game Three. With Lillard out, head coach Doc Rivers will likely turn to Malik Beasley who is an improvement on the defensive end of the court. Beasley’s size makes him an interesting choice to defend Tyrese Haliburton — and that would allow for their top defender Patrick Beverley to clamp down on Andrew Nembhard. One thing that seems certain is that Rivers will continue to do everything he can to get this game into “mud” as he declared before the series started. After the 97 mutual possessions (adjusted possessions per 48 minutes) in Game One, there were 92.5 possessions in Game Two before just the 89.2 adjusted possession rate in Game Three which includes the pace in overtime. That game went into overtime with the score tied at 111 — helped by Lillard’s 28 points. The Bucks have played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total on the road as an underdog. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Indiana only made 13 of their 49 shots from behind the arc for a 27% shooting percentage. Tyrese Halliburton does not appear to be at 100% as he recovers from the injuries that slowed him down during the regular season — he missed 11 of his 12 shots from downtown. The Pacers' bench scoring production is down as well. After leading the NBA by getting 46.8 Points-Per-Game from their bench in the regular season, the second unit is only scoring 23.3 PPG in this series, down -23.5 PPG. Indiana has played 4 of their 6 games this season Under the Total after a win by three points or less — and they have played 42 of their last 63 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have played 14 of their last 23 games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And in their last 8 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in 14 days, they have played 5 of these games Under the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when avenging a loss of three points or less — and they have played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total when playing with double revenge including six of those last nine circumstances. 25* NBA Central Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Milwaukee Bucks (553) and the Indiana Pacers (553). Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (547) and the Los Angeles Lakers (548) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (60-25) looks to close out this series tonight after their 112-105 upset victory on the road against the Lakers as a 1-point underdog on Thursday. Los Angeles (49-38) had won three games in a row to conclude the regular season but now trail 0-3 in this best-of-seven series. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nuggets nailed 48.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort for them in this series. But they have beaten the Lakers in all three games in this series despite allowing them to shoot at least 48.7% of their shots in each game. Denver has played 3 of their 4 games this season Under the Total after allowing three straight opponents to make at least 47% of their shots. Despite their shooting success, the Nuggets have not allowed more than 105 points in this series — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in three or more games in a row. Additionally, Denver has played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after winning three games in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total when playing for just the second time in five days. Furthermore, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 playoff games Under the Total in potential close-out contests. Los Angeles allowed Denver to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six games. But the Under is still 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The Lakers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the first round of the NBA playoffs. 

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with revenge from an upset loss as a home favorite. 8* NBA Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (547) and the Los Angeles Lakers (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                                                         

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547) in Game Four of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-38) looks to avoid getting swept in this opening-round series after their 112-105 upset loss as a 1-point favorite on Thursday. Denver (60-25) has won seven of their last eight games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE LAKERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles faces a near-impossible task to overcome a 3-0 deficit to the reigning NBA champions. But this one is for pride to avoid getting swept by the Nuggets in two straight postseasons and at least go into the offseason with their 11-game losing streak against them snapped. LeBron James will demand a big effort from his team — and his history demonstrates that he does not take a knee when his team is attempting to avoid a sweep in a playoff series. In those four previous playoff games when his team was down 0-3, James has scored 29.5 Points-Per-Game while adding 8.3 Rebounds-Per-Game and 9.5 Assists-Per-Game in 44 minutes per contest. The Lakers only made 5 of their 27 shots from behind the arc on Thursday — expect them to shoot better than 19% from 3-point range. They also allowed the Nuggets to make 48.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last six contests. But Los Angeles has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 home games after a straight-up loss at home. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after failing to score more than 105 points. If there is one vulnerability of this Nuggets team (outside their depth), it is that they can get complacent. Becoming a little too dependent on the dopamine rush of digging themselves out of a big deficit tends to be a problem for defending champions — and Denver seems to crave this euphoria when playing this Lakers team. Los Angeles held a double-digit lead once again in Game Three after owning a 59-44 halftime lead in Game Two and enjoying a 49-37 lead midway through the second quarter in Game One. The Nuggets are going to assume they can simply flip the switch once again. But Denver has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 36 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have covered the point spread in six of their last eight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have out-rebounded their last four opponents by at least seven boards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after out-rebounding four straight opponents by five or more rebounds. 

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road as a favorite of less than 11 points. The 12th time’s the charm for the Lakers tonight. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Los Angeles Lakers (548) plus the points versus the Denver Nuggets (547). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (541) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (542) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Cleveland (50-35) had won four of their last five games before their 121-83 loss on the road against the Magic as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. Orlando (48-37) had lost five of six games before the victory to now trail in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland may have been overconfident in Game Three after dominating the first two games of this series. They allowed the Magic to make 51.1% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games Even worse, the Cavaliers only made 39.0% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 48 games. They should play better this afternoon. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a loss by ten or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after a loss on the road by ten or more points. Orlando played their best defensive game in their last 11 contests by holding the Cavaliers to 39.0% shooting. They also enjoyed their best shooting game in their last nine contests by nailing 51.1% of their shots. After only making 23.6% of their 3s in Games One and Two, Orlando managed to convert on 13 of their 37 shots from behind the arc for a 35.1% shooting mark. Unfortunately for the Magic, Thursday’s performance looks like an outlier for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games this month. Additionally, while Orlando has not allowed more than 96 points in the last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when playing for no more than the fifth time in the last ten days. 

FINAL TAKE: The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers (541) plus the points versus the Indiana Pacers (542). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Phoenix Suns (538) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Phoenix (49-35) has lost the first two games of this series after their 105-93 loss on the road against the Timberwolves as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday. Minnesota (58-26) has won three of their last four games as well as five of their last seven contests. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUNS MINUS THE POINTS: Phoenix had been playing well to end the season with three straight victories. The Suns have bounced back to win 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss on the road by double-digits. They have only generated 75 and 78 shots in the first two games of this series — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to put up more than 80 shots in two straight games. They have also covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last contest. Now after playing their last five games on the road, they return home now to play for the first time since April 9th — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after playing their last four games on the road. Phoenix has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 56 home games when favored by six points or less. Minnesota only made 44.9% of their shots in Game Two — but that was also their best shooting effort in their last seven games. The Timberwolves have won and covered the point spread in both games in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row while covering the point spread as a favorite in both games. And while the Suns have not scored more than 95 points in either game in this series, Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. 

FINAL TAKE: Phoenix won all three games against the Timberwolves in the regular season by double-digits. And while they have lost both games in this series by 25 and 12 points, the Suns have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 opportunities to avenge two straight losses to their opponent by double-digits. 8* NBA Minnesota-Phoenix ESPN Special with the Phoenix Suns (538) minus the points versus the Minnesota Timberwolves (537). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (537) and the Phoenix Suns (538) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (58-26) has won three of their last four games as well as five of their last seven contests after their 105-93 loss on the road against the Timberwolves as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Phoenix (49-35) had won three games in a row before losing the first two games of this series. 

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Timberwolves are having their way getting looks against the Suns — they generated 43% of their points at the rim. Minnesota has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row at home. They won Game One by 25 points — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning two games in a row by double-digits. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Over the Total after failing to score more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. The Timberwolves have held the Suns to 93 and 95 points in the first two games of this series — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points or less in two straight games. Phoenix has played 6 straight Overs after losing two games in a row by double-digits. The Suns have also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. Additionally, they have played 10 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. This game is just the fourth time in the last three seasons that Phoenix they are playing a game at home with the Total set below 210 — and all 3 previous games finished Over the Total. 

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* NBA Friday Late Show O/U Bailout with Over the Total in the game between the Minnesota Timberwolves (537) and the Phoenix Suns (538). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536) in Game Three of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (52-32) has lost four of their last five games after their 96-93 upset loss at home to the Mavericks as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Dallas (51-33) snapped a three-game losing streak to even this series at 1-1. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE CLIPPERS PLUS THE POINTS: Los Angeles only made 36.8% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort for their entire season. Kawhi Leonard did return from injury in that game after missing nine games in a row but he was rusty — he made only 7 of his 17 shots while missing nine of his 12 jumpers including an 0-5 mark from behind the arc. With two days off, he should play better tonight as he re-establishes his rhythm. Remember, Leonard had a 51% shooting percentage with a 39% clip from behind the arc in his previous 72 playoff games resulting in almost 29 Points-Per-Game. More ball movement should achieve better shooting results for this team. Los Angeles was still in a position to win Game Two despite that dismal shooting. They outplayed the Mavericks in the other areas of the game: they had more offensive rebounds and scored more second-chance points; they made more free throws; they had fewer turnovers; they had more fast break points; they had more points in the paint and shot a better percentage at the rim. The Clippers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. After playing their last five games, they go back on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after playing three or more games in a row. Head coach Ty Lue needs to make an adjustment to the Mavericks playing small ball with Maxi Kleber on the court — and that could mean more playing time for P.J. Tucker who did see more action at the end of the season. Dallas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after an upset loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win on the road by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after a win by six points or less. The Mavericks were red-hot down the stretch by winning 16 of 18 games before tanking the final two regular season games since their spot as the fifth seed in the Western Conference playoffs was clinched. But only one of their 16 victories during that stretch was against a top-six seed in either conference — and that upset win at home against Denver required a miracle buzzer-beating shot from Kyrie Irving to steal that game. Dallas is below .500 with a 23-27 straight-up record against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or better. 

FINAL TAKE: The Clippers have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 opportunities to avenge a loss by three points or less including four of those last five situations. 25* NBA Western Conference Underdog of the Month with Los Angeles Clippers (535) plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks (536). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (527) and the Philadelphia 76ers (528) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New York (52-32) has won seven games in a row after their 104-101 loss in Madison Square Garden as a 5-point favorite on Monday. Philadelphia (48-37) returns home trailing 0-2 in this best-of-seven series.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Knicks held the 76ers to just 42.9% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. New York has played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by three points or less. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 23 games Over the Total as an underdog. The Knicks have also played 8 of their last 9 games this month Over the Total. For the 76ers, Joel Embiid has been productive despite his left knee injury. He is averaging 38 minutes per game in this series — and while he has only made 20 of 51 of his shots, he is still scoring 31.5 Points-Per-Game after dropping 34 points and adding 10 rebounds on Monday. Getting two days off between games will help tonight. Philadelphia has played 10 of their last 12 games Over the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have also played 4 straight Overs after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. Additionally, the Sixers have played 33 of their last 49 games Over the Total after playing their last two games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have played 32 of their last 52 games Over the Total when favored. 8* NBA New York-Philadelphia TNT O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the New York Knicks (527) and the Philadelphia 76ers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Philadelphia 76ers (528) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (527) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Philadelphia (48-37) returns home trailing 0-2 in this best-of-seven series after their 104-101 loss in Madison Square Garden as a 5-point underdog on Monday. New York (52-32) has won seven games in a row.

REASONS TO TAKE THE 76ERS MINUS THE POINTS: I have not endorsed anything in this series yet because of my uncertainty regarding the health of Joel Embiid. He is averaging 38 minutes per game in this series — and while he has only made 20 of 51 of his shots, he is still scoring 31.5 Points-Per-Game after dropping 34 points and adding 10 rebounds on Monday. Getting the extra day off really helps the Sixers and Embiid tonight — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games when playing for the second time in five days. Philadelphia has also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as the underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after losing two games in a row on the road. The 76ers return home where they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 33 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Philly is defending Jalen Brunson well because they are bypassing drop coverage to stay in his face to take away his midrange. While he is scoring 23.0 PPG, he has only made 16 of his 55 shots from the field for a rough 29.1% field goal percentage. The Knicks held the Sixers to just 42.9% of their shots which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 games. But there are plenty of concerns for this team despite their 2-0 lead in the series. All five of their starters got outscored when they were on the court in Game One — the best +/- number for a starter was Brunson’s -3. Game Two had the controversial officiating late in the game. New York is only scoring 86.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in the half-court. The Knicks have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after failing to cover the point spread in a straight-up victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by three points or less at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by three points or less against an Atlantic Division rival. Furthermore, New York has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing no more than the fifth time in the last 14 days. Both games in this series have finished Over the Total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. And in their last 11 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 times. 

FINAL TAKE: The 76ers have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 51 games when avenging a loss on the road to their opponent. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year with the Philadelphia 76ers (528) minus the points versus the New York Knicks (527). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (526) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (525) in Game Three of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Orlando (47-37) has lost the first two games of this series as well as five of their last six contests after their 96-86 loss to the Cavaliers as a 5.5-point underdog on Monday. Cleveland (50-34) has won four of their last five games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Orlando has not been competitive in this series after losing both games by double-digits and not scoring more than 86 points. This young team should play better — and shoot better — back on their home court. The Magic have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games at home where they are making 48.8% of their shots. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games at home after a point spread loss. Additionally, Orlando has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after losing two or more games in a row on the road. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing four of their last five games. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last two games. If there is a silver lining for the Magic, it is that they have not allowed more than 97 points in this series — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game. Cleveland is only making 42% of their shots in this series — and they are hitting just 29% of their 3s. Now they go on the road where their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency drops from 117.0 to 112.0. The Cavaliers have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games on the road as an underdog of up to six points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest. They have covered the point spread in both games in this series — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in two games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last two games by double-digits. 

FINAL TAKE: The Magic have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games when favored. 10* NBA Thursday Daily Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (526) minus the points versus the Cleveland Cavaliers (525). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (519) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (50-35) has lost three of their last four games after their 94-92 win against the Pelicans in Game One of this best-of-seven series. Oklahoma City (58-25) has won six games in a row. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans only made 38.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 contests — but I do not necessarily think the Regression Gods are coming for a visit tonight. The Pelicans miss the injured Zion Williamson who scored 22.9 PPG on 57.0% shooting. Brandon Ingram does not look close to 100% from his knee injury that kept him out for weeks. He scored only 13 points on Sunday on 5 of 17 shooting. In his four games back from injury, he has scored more than 13 points only once — and he is making just 43.1% of his shots. The Pelicans got a big game out of Jonas Valanciunas in Game One who grabbed 20 rebounds. They pulled down 36% of their missed shots — and they should control the glass again tonight against this Thunder team that privileges fast break transition opportunities to protect their defensive glass. When New Orleans gets second chance opportunities, that will also allow them to slow the pace down — something head coach Willie Green wants to do without a healthy Williamson. New Orleans has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 38 road games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games. They have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. And while they have outrebounded three straight opponents by five or more boards, they have then played 4 straight Unders after outrebounding three straight opponents. They stay on the road where they have played 16 of their last 25 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. Oklahoma City has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. They have also played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win by six or more points. Additionally, the Thunder have played 8 off their last 11 home games Under the Total when they are favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total when playing with revenge. 8* NBA Wednesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (519) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (520). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (519) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (58-25) has won six games in a row after their 94-92 win against the Pelicans in Game One of this best-of-seven series. New Orleans (50-35) has lost three of their last four games. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City looked nervy in their playoff series in the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. They only made 43.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last seven games. They only made 32% of their 3-pointers. With the first playoff game and victory under their belts, they should get back into the rhythm that earned them the top seed in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City may still be underappreciated in some circles — but this is a team loaded with young talent that smartly engages in the math battle of modern basketball. They led the league by making 38.9% of their 3s in the regular season. They also focus on winning the turnover battle — they rank fifth in the NBA by turning the ball over 12.5% of the time while posting the top turnover rate on defense by forcing turnovers in 15.5% of their opponent’s possessions. They led the NBA by scoring 20.4 Points-Per-Game off turnovers. And led by rookie Chet Holmgren, they were tops in the league by holding their opponents to 61.6% shooting inside four feet. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread. They have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 95 points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after playing a game where no more than 195 combined points were scored. Oklahoma City will start benefiting from getting last week off while the Pelicans were surviving the Play-In Tournament. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games when playing with two days of rest — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when playing for no more than the sixth time in the last 14 days. They now have a 34-8 record when playing at home — and they have covered the point spread in 27 of those 42 games. They have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 25 home games after playing their last game at home. And in their last 17 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points, they have covered the point spread in 11 of these contests. New Orleans only made 38.5% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 28 contests — but I do not necessarily think the Regression Gods are coming for a visit tonight. The Pelicans miss the injured Zion Williamson who scored 22.9 PPG on 57.0% shooting. Brandon Ingram does not look close to 100% from his knee injury that kept him out for weeks. He scored only 13 points on Sunday on 5 of 17 shooting. In his four games back from injury, he has scored more than 13 points only once — and he is making just 43.1% of his shots. The Pelicans got a big game out of Jonas Valanciunas in Game One who grabbed 20 rebounds. They pulled down 36% of their missed shots — and while the Thunder are not a great rebounding team, I do expect head coach Mark Daigneault to have his team focus more on protecting their defensive glass. New Orleans has outrebounded their last three opponents by at least five boards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after outrebounding three straight opponents by five or more rebounds. They have covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, the Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 29 road games as an underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games when attempting to avenge a loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing with revenge from a loss by three points or less. 25* NBA Western Conference Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (520) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (519). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (50-33) has lost three games in a row after their 109-97 upset loss as a 3.5-point favorite in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. Los Angeles (52-31) snapped a three-game losing streak with the win. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAVERICKS PLUS THE POINTS: Dallas only made 38.7% of their shots on Sunday — and they only made 30% of their shots from behind the arc. The Mavericks simply seemed to lack much urgency in that game — but they should play better tonight. Dallas has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games after a straight-up loss. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after losing two games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after losing three or more games in a row. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after suffering an upset loss on the road as the favorite. The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 42 games on the road. They allowed the Clippers to nail 18 of their 36 shots (50%) from behind the arc on Sunday — but they should tighten up their perimeter defense tonight. The Mavericks have become a very good defensive team in the second half of the season after acquiring Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline. Gafford offers them the rim protection they were desperate for and Washington is a good on-the-ball defender. After ranking 26th in the NBA in opponent effective field goal percentage, Dallas improved to third in the league in that category since February 5th. They led the NBA in their final 15 games with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.1. Los Angeles made 46.0% of their shots in Game One despite not having Kawhi Leonard in that game — that was the best shooting effort in their last three games. And by holding the Mavericks to 38.7% shooting, they played their best defensive game in their last four contests. They raced out to a 56-30 halftime lead after Dallas managed to score only eight points in the second quarter. But the Clippers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after going into halftime with a 20 or more point lead. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games when playing for the second time in seven days. And in their last 15 games at home with the Total set in the 210s, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of those games. Kawhi Leonard is available to play tonight — but he may not be at full strength after missing the last nine games.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have covered the point spread in 8 straight games on the road when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show Bailout with the Dallas Mavericks (513) plus the points versus the Los Angeles Clippers (514). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Indiana Pacers (511) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512) in Game Two of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Indiana (47-37) has lost two of their last three games after dropping the opening game of this best-of-seven series by a 109-94 score as a 1-point favorite on Sunday. Milwaukee (50-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with the victory. 

REASONS TO TAKE THE PACERS PLUS THE POINT(S): Indiana was flat on Sunday — and Tyrese Halliburton looked tentative on the court. Veteran head coach Rick Carlisle who has overseen an NBA title in his coaching career should get his team refocused for Game Two tonight. They should also shoot the ball better after only making 39.6% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 63 games. The Pacers are third in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — and they have led the league in that category since March 1st. They make 50.4% of their shots on the season — and they should improve their 3-point shooting tonight after only making 8 of their 38 shots from behind the arc. Indiana nails 37.0% of their 3s so they should improve on their 21% clip from behind the arc. The Pacers have been very consistent after disappointing efforts. Indiana has covered the point spread in 23 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their 4 upset losses against Central Division rivals. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset loss as a double-digit loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a loss by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after an upset loss as a road favorite. The Pacers play at the second-fastest pace in the league by averaging 105.2 possessions per game. Getting last week off should help them tonight as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing for just the second time in seven days — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games after when playing for no more than the fourth time in ten days. A silver lining for Indiana on Sunday is that they pulled down 28% of their missed shots — if they can approach that number again while shooting better, they should pull off the upset. Milwaukee played their best defensive game in their last ten contests by holding the Pacers to 39.6% shooting. The Bucks will likely still be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight as he recovers from his calf injury. Damian Lillard stepped in Game One with 35 points on 11 of 24 shooting — and he nailed 6 of his 11 shots from behind the arc. But it is fair to say that Lillard has been a disappointment in his first season with the Bucks. He is only scoring 24.3 Points-Per-Game on 42.4% shooting and a 35.4% mark from 3-point land. Milwaukee was lethargic down the stretch with eight losses in their final 11 regular season games including an ugly 25-point loss at Orlando in the final day which cost them the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after an upset victory — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after an upset win by 10 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: The Pacers have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when avenging a double-digit loss to their opponent. 25* NBA Central Division Game of the Year with the Indiana Pacers (511) plus the point(s) versus the Milwaukee Bucks (512). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 10:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Denver Nuggets (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505) in Game Two of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (58-25) took the opening game of this best-of-seven series with their 114-103 victory as a 7-point favorite on Saturday. Los Angeles (49-36) had their three-game winning streak with the loss.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: The Lakers have now lost nine straight games to Denver — which raises the urgency that they need to split the first two games on the road and avoid the requirement to beat the defending champions in four of the final potential five games in this series. But it will be difficult for Los Angeles to not think they let Game One slip away after owning a 49-37 lead midway through the second quarter. The free throw disparity in that game was particularly striking in the Lakers' favor despite them being on the road. Granted, Los Angeles ranks second in the league by getting to the line 24.2 times per game — and they also rank second in free throw rate. But while the Lakers made 17 of their 19 shots from the charity stripe, the Nuggets only had six free throw attempts all game. Denver averages 15.5 made free throws per game on 19.9 attempts — so expect at least another dozen or so free throw attempts from them tonight. The Nuggets were whistled for 20 fouls on Saturday which was five more than what were called on Los Angeles. The Lakers had 29 free throw attempts in their Play-In Tournament game against New Orleans which was 14 more than what the Pelicans got. New Orleans was whistled for 23 fouls in that game almost doubled the 12 personal fouls called on Los Angeles. But the Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after getting at least 10 more shots at the charity stripe than their opponent in two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after drawing at least ten more personal fouls than their opponent. Denver has full confidence that they can flip the switch to defeat this Lakers’ team — but they may not want to temp fate again by falling behind by 12 points. The Nuggets are a rested team who are comfortable playing in the high altitude — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for no more than the third time in the last ten days. Denver has won two games in a row as well as five of their last six contests — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 46 games at home after winning three of their last four games. They ended the regular season with a 1-point win at Memphis — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their 6 games this season when following up two straight double-digit victories.

FINAL TAKE: The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when playing with triple revenge — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games when attempting to end a losing streak of four or more games against their opponent. 10* NBA LA Lakers-Denver TNT Special with the Denver Nuggets (506) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (505). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (585) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (50-34) has won five of their last seven games after their 105-98 victory against Sacramento as a 1-point favorite in their second Play-In Tournament game on Friday. Oklahoma City (57-25) has won five games in a row after their 135-86 victory against Dallas as a 19.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: New Orleans stepped up without the injured Zion Williamson to make 51.8% of their shots against the Kings which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. The Pelicans are thin with their scoring without Williamson — they score -3.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. The Pelicans have played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while they have won five of their last seven games, they have then played 26 of their last 43 games Under the Total after winning four of five of their last six contests. Oklahoma City made 55.7% of their shots last Sunday against the Mavericks which was the best shooting effort in their last nine games. The Thunder have covered the point spread in four straight games even as a double-digit point spread laying 14 or more points in those last three games. OKC has played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning and covered the point spread as a double-digit favorite in two or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Furthermore, they have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last contest. And in their last 10 games at home when laying 6.5 to 12 points, the Thunder have played 7 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans want to avenge a 119-112 loss at home to the Thunder as a 1-point underdog the last time these two teams played — and they have played 39 of their last 61 road games Under the Total when playing with revenge. 8* NBA New Orleans-Oklahoma City TNT O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the New Orleans Pelicans (585) and the Oklahoma City Thunder (586). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (585) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma City (57-25) has won five games in a row after their 135-86 victory against Dallas as a 19.5-point favorite last Sunday. New Orleans (50-34) has won five of their last seven games after their 105-98 victory against Sacramento as a 1-point favorite in their second Play-In Tournament game on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDER MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma City comes into this game rested and ready after getting the week off after earning the number one seed in the Western Conference with their victory against the Mavericks. They made 55.7% of their shots against Dallas — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after making at least 55% or more of their shots in their last game. The Thunder have scored at least 125 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after scoring 125 or more points in their last two games. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after scoring 120 or more points in their last three games. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after not allowing more than 95 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 90 points in their last game. Furthermore, Oklahoma City has covered the points spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have covered the points spread in 5 of their last 6 games after victory by 30 or more points. Furthermore, the Thunder have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 home games after winning their previous game at home — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games at home on a three-game or better winning streak. OKC has covered the point spread in 27 of their 41 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 home games with the Total set in the 210s. New Orleans stepped up without the injured Zion Williamson to make 51.8% of their shots against the Kings which was the best shooting effort in their last four contests. They also held that depleted Sacramento team missing Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter to just 40.9 shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 13 contests. Brandon Ingram logged in 37:09 minutes which was the most he played since returning from injury — he had not played more than 24 minutes in his first two games back so fatigue will be an issue. The Pelicans are thin with their scoring without Williamson — they score -3.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. The Pelicans have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after playing a game where both teams did not score more than 105 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. And while they have won five of their last seven contests, they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 30 games after winning five or six of their last seven games.

FINAL TAKE: This is a tough situational spot for the Pelicans after surviving on Friday night in the Crescent City before traveling to Oklahoma City for this series — all without their leading scorer. The Thunder have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 home games when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Month with the Oklahoma City Thunder (586) minus the points versus the New Orleans Pelicans (585). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:40 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (587) and the Los Angeles Clippers (588) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Dallas (50-32) had won five games in a row before punting on their final two contests culminating in a 135-86 loss at Oklahoma City as a 19.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles (51-31) has lost three games in a row after a 116-105 loss to Houston as a 4.5-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was just announced at little after 2 PM ET that Kawhi Leonard will be out for this game as he continues to deal with right knee inflammation. His absence impacts both ends of the court for the Clippers — but I suspect the bigger concern for head coach Ty Lue is when his team has the basketball. Paul George’s defensive assignment was always going to Luka Doncic — Leonard was likely to defend Tim Hardaway or the other Mavericks off guard to Kyrie Irving. Russell Westbrook will likely get more playing time this afternoon — and Los Angeles holds their opponents to -2.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is on the court. Westbrook may end up Irving — and he can also switch off on Doncic. But Westbrook’s presence on the court disrupts the offensive flow and spacing with James Harden — this is the reason why he was moved to the second unit midseason. The Clippers score -3.8 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when Leonard is off the court — and they score -1.5 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when Westbrook is on the court. Lue will demand a better defensive effort after the Rockets shot 48.5% against them last week which was the worst defensive performance in their last eight games. Los Angeles has played 26 of their last 39 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 15 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after a double-digit loss. The Clippers have not covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing for the fourth time or less in the last 14 days. Dallas did not show up on defense last week as they allowed the Thunder to make 55.7% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 25 games. The Mavericks have become a very good defensive team in the second half of the season after acquiring Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington at the trade deadline. Gafford offers them the rim protection they were desperate for and Washington is a good on-the-ball defender. After ranking 26th in the NBA in opponent effective field goal percentage, Dallas improved to third in the league in that category since February 5th. They led the NBA in their final 15 games with an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency of 106.1. The Mavericks have failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in two or more games in a row. They had covered the point spread in their five previous games — and they have played 21 of their last 29 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Dallas has also played 22 of their last 33 games Under the Total in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 9 of their last 14 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. The Clippers have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 10* NBA Dallas-LA Clippers ABC-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the Dallas Mavericks (587) and the Los Angeles Clippers (588). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be the Denver Nuggets (576) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (575) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Denver (57-25) won four of their last five games to close out the regular season with a 126-111 victory at Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday. Los Angeles (49-35) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 110-106 upset victory at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE NUGGETS MINUS THE POINTS: Denver enters the postseason healthy and with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 29 of their last 45 games at home after winning three of their last four games. The week off should help the defending champions as well in this opening game. The Nuggets have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games when playing with three or more days of rest between games. Los Angeles has pulled off two straight upset victories against the Pelicans — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after an upset win on the road as an underdog. The Lakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 39 games after winning their last game on the road. They have covered the point spread in two straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Additionally, Los Angeles has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Nuggets own the Lakers with eight straight victories against them after completing a three-game regular season sweep with a 124-114 victory in Los Angeles as a 1-point road favorite back on March 2nd. The Lakers have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games when avenging a loss at home. 8* NBA Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Denver Nuggets (576) minus the points versus the Los Angeles Lakers (575). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Los Angeles (49-35) has won three games in a row as well as seven of their last nine contests after their 110-106 upset victory at New Orleans as a 1-point underdog in the Play-In Tournament on Tuesday. Denver (57-25) won four of their last five games to close out the regular season with a 126-111 victory at Memphis as a 13.5-point favorite last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Lakers may be rusty with the three full days off since their game against the Pelicans — and they only made 41.7% of their shots in that game. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis should have fresh legs which will help them on the defensive end of the court. Los Angeles has played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with three or more days of rest. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game where they have played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning their two previous games on the road. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. Denver comes into the postseason to defend their NBA title on a hot streak regarding their shooting. The Nuggets have shot at least 50.5% from the field in their last three games — and they have played five straight games where they nailed at least 48.9% of their shots. But Denver has then played 18 of their last 26 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in three straight games. They have also played 19 of their last 25 games Under the Total after making 47% or more of their shots in five straight contests. Additionally, the Nuggets have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit win on the road — and they have played 26 of their last 37 games Under the Total after a victory by 15 or more points. This will be the fifth game this season that Denver will be playing with three or more days of rest after their last contest — and they have played 3 of those first 4 games Under the Total. After playing their last two games on the road, the Nuggets return home — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after playing their two previous games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Denver has won the last eight meetings between these two teams after the Nuggets’ 124-114 victory as a 1-point favorite in Los Angeles on March 2nd. The Lakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with triple revenge against their opponent. 25* NBA Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Los Angeles Lakers (575) and the Denver Nuggets (576). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 3:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (578) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (577) in Game One of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Minnesota (50-26) closed out the regular season losing two of their last three games after their 125-106 upset loss as a 2-point favorite last Sunday. Phoenix (49-33) has won three games in a row and six of their last eight games after their 125-106 upset victory as a 2-point underdog last Sunday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES MINUS THE POINT(S): Minnesota will benefit from the week off — they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games when playing with three more days of rest. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after an upset loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss. They host the first two games of this series — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 home games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Phoenix made 54.7% of their shots last week against the Timberwolves which was the best shooting effort in their last 11 games. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games on the road after pulling off an upset victory by 15 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 28 of their last 45 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win on the road. They stay on the road for the fourth straight game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning their two previous games on the road. And in their last 10 games when playing for just the second time in the last seven days, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 10 straight games when playing with revenge from a loss at home. 10* NBA Phoenix-Minnesota ESPN Special with the Minnesota Timberwolves (578) minus the point(s) versus the Phoenix Suns (577). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the New Orleans Pelicans (558) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (557) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: New Orleans (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 110-106 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite in their Play-In game on Tuesday. Sacramento (47-36) has won two games in a row after their 118-94 upset victory at home against Golden State as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday to advance to this final Play-In Tournament game. The winner of this game takes the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and plays at Minnesota on Sunday; the loser’s season ends.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PELICANS MINUS (OR PLUS) THE POINT(S): The Pelicans lost a close one against the Lakers on Tuesday despite only making 46.2% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The injury to Zion Williamson certainly played a role in determining the final score of that game. With Williamson out tonight with that left shoulder injury, look for the remaining Pelicans to step up their play in his absence tonight. As it is, New Orleans has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a loss by six points or less. Look for the Pelicans to play better on defense tonight since Williamson is a liability on defense — New Orleans holds their opponents to -3.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. Sacramento has covered the point spread in three straight games after their upset victory against the Warriors — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. The Kings scored at least 110 points for just the fourth time in their last 15 games on Tuesday. After posting historic efficiency numbers on offense last season, Sacramento is a different team right now after the injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Monk is the team’s third-leader scoring and offensive spark plug coming off the bench. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter who opens up space in the starting five for De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. For the season, the Kings rank 14th in the league by averaging 99.47 adjusted possessions per game — with Huerter missing the last 17 games and Monk out the last 11 contests.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans beat the Kings in all five of their meetings this season after their 135-123 upset win on the road as a 1-point underdog on April 11th — and Sacramento has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when attempting to avenge a double-digit loss at home. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the New Orleans Pelicans (558) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Sacramento Kings (557). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Sacramento (47-36) has won two games in a row after their 118-94 upset victory at home against Golden State as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday to advance to this final Play-In Tournament game. New Orleans (49-34) has lost two games in a row after their 110-106 upset loss at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite in their Play-In game on Tuesday. The winner of this game takes the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs and plays at Minnesota on Sunday; the loser’s season ends. 

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Kings scored at least 110 points for just the fourth time in their last 15 games on Tuesday. After posting historic efficiency numbers on offense last season, Sacramento is a different team right now after the injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Monk is the team’s third-leader scoring and offensive spark plug coming off the bench. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter who opens up space in the starting five for De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. But head coach Mike Brown has his team playing much better on the defensive end of the court — and they are also playing at a slower pace to compensate for their now very thin bench. For the season, the Kings rank 14th in the league by averaging 99.47 adjusted possessions per game — with Huerter missing the last 17 games and Monk out the last 11 contests. In their last 10 games, Sacramento’s pace has dropped to just 96.55 adjusted possessions per game which is the third-slowest in the NBA during that span. But while Sacramento ranks 14th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency this season, they have risen all the way up to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. The Kings have held their last five opponents to 45.7% shooting which has resulted in 106.2 Points-Per-Game — and that is -2.2% and -8.4 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win at home — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. They go back on the road where they have played 14 of their last 22 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 11 of their last 16 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Kings have played 18 of their last 25 road games Under the Total against teams winning 51-60% of their games — and they have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record. They have also played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total in April including seven of their nine games this month. New Orleans now has their own significant injury news to deal with after Zion Williamson injured his left calf late in the game on Tuesday which will keep him out for tonight’s contest. He led the way with 40 points in the loss to the Lakers — and the Pelicans will very much miss his scoring tonight. But Williamson is a liability on defense — New Orleans holds their opponents to -3.7 points per 100 adjusted possessions when he is off the court. Brandon Ingram is healthy again — but he does not appear to be close to 100% yet. He only played 25 minutes on Tuesday and was not on the court in crunch time in the fourth quarter. He scored only 11 points on 4 of 12 shooting — and he has averaged just 12 PPG in his two games back in action. As it is and even with Williamson, the Pelicans’ offense has slowed down in the half-court to close out the regular season. While they ranked 10th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in the half court during the regular season, they dropped to 18th by scoring only 97.3 points per 100 adjusted possessions in their final ten regular season games. New Orleans has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after losing two games in a row at home — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing with two days of rest. They have played 10 of their last 14 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. And in their last 24 games in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record, they have played 15 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans beat the Kings in all five of their meetings this season after their 135-123 upset win in Sacramento as a 1-point underdog on April 11th. Sacramento has played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 10 or more points. 25* NBA Play-In Tournament Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Sacramento Kings (557) and the New Orleans Pelicans (558). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Chicago Bulls (550) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (549) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Chicago (39-43) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 120-119 loss in overtime at New York as a 13-point underdog on Sunday. Atlanta (36-46) limps into the postseason on a six-game losing streak after a 157-115 loss at Indiana as a 13.5-point underdog on Sunday. The winner of this game plays on the road against the loser of the Miami-Philadelphia game; the loser’s season ends.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLS MINUS THE POINTS: Credit goes to head coach Billy Donovan’s team for playing hard on Sunday in a game that did not mean anything to them since they had already locked home court in this nine-versus-ten seed Eastern Conference clash in the Play-In Tournament. The Bulls nailed 48.5% of their shots against the Knicks which was actually the worst shooting effort in their last five games. Chicago has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making at least 47% of their shots in four or more games in a row. They did allow New York to make 50.5% of their shots after Washington made 52.3% of their shots in their previous game — but the Bulls have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing their last two opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. Chicago has played four straight Overs — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after playing three or more Overs in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after playing four or more games in a row. Additionally, the Bulls have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 24 games when playing for the second time in five days. Atlanta chose to not show up in their game against the Pacers on Sunday as they let Indiana make 65.0% of their shots — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing their last opponent to nail 55.0% or more of their shots. The Hawks have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 25 games after a straight-up loss on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road by 20 or more points. They stay on the road for the third straight game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 40 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulls won the three-game series with the Hawks — but they come off a 113-101 upset loss to them the last time they played which was in Chicago where they were favored by two points. Chicago won meetings between these two teams when Tray Young played for Atlanta. The Bulls have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 opportunities to avenge a double-digit loss at home to their opponent. 10* NBA Wednesday Night Discounted Deal with the Chicago Bulls (550) minus the points versus the Atlanta Hawks (549). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Sacramento Kings (544) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-36) has won four of their last five games after their 123-116 win against Utah as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (46-36) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 121-82 victory against Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to play the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans game on Thursday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs; the loser’s season ends.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Golden State took the day off regarding their play on the defensive end of the court against the Jazz as they allowed them to nail 51.7% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 17 games. Head coach Steve Kerr will make sure his team gets back to basics in this single-elimination game. The Warriors have been a much better defensive team once Draymond Green got back into the mix after getting suspended. After ranking 24th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their first 40 games, they improved to eighth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last 42 contests. While they rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season, they have been even better down the stretch by rising to ninth in their last ten games. They have held their last five opponents to 45.3% shooting which has resulted in 110.4 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are a 1.3% and a -4.8 PPG improvement against their season defensive averages. The Warriors have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after winning three of their last four games. They go back on the road where they have played 14  of their last 19 games Under the Total when favored. Sacramento is missing two key pieces to what was already a limited rotation of players. Kevin Huerter has only played in two minutes in the last 16 games after injuring his left shoulder on March 18th. Malik Monk has played just one minute in their last ten games after he sprained his right MCL. Both losses are critical. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter. His presence on the perimeter opens up space for De’Aaron Fox to drive the lane — and he is an important target for Domantas Sabonis in his point forward role. Monk provides instant offense off the bench and is in line to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. In their last five games, they are only making 44.7% of their shots which has resulted in 112.6 Points-Per-Game — and those marks represent -3.0% and -4.0 PPG drops from their season averages. But the Kings have amped up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as they have held their last five opponents to 44.4% shooting which has resulted in 102.8 PPG — and those numbers are -3.6% and -12.2 PPG below their season averages. Sacramento has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Furthermore, the Kings have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: The Kings have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against fellow Pacific Division rivals. 10* NBA Tuesday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (543) and the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 10:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544) in the Play-In Tournament. THE SITUATION: Golden State (46-36) has won four of their last five games after their 123-116 win against Utah as an 11-point favorite on Sunday. Sacramento (46-36) snapped their three-game losing streak with a 121-82 victory against Portland as a 17.5-point favorite on Sunday. The winner of this game travels to play the winner of the Los Angeles Lakers-New Orleans Pelicans game on Thursday to determine the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs; the loser’s season ends.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WARRIORS MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Steve Kerr has Golden State playing their best basketball heading into the postseason — they have won ten of their last 12 games. In their last ten games, the Warriors rank seventh in the NBA with a Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +8.1 which is a big improvement over their Net Adjusted Efficiency Margin of +2.4 for the entire season which ranks 13th. They rank ninth in the league in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they rose to fifth in that metric in their last ten games. They are making 50.6% of their shots in their last five games. The improvement in defense has been even more pronounced. While they rank 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency for the season, they rise to ninth in their last ten games. They have held their last five opponents to 45.3% shooting which has resulted in 110.4 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are a 1.3% and a -4.8 PPG improvement against their season defensive averages. They did allow the Jazz to make 51.7% of their shots on Sunday but that was the worst defensive game in their last 17 contests. Golden State has failed to cover the point spread in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning two of their last three contests. After struggling on the road last season with the negative vibes coming from Jordan Poole impacting the chemistry of the team, Kerr has emphasized better play away from home this season. The Warriors have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 41 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 road games in the second half of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 road games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games when favored by up to six points or listed as a pick ‘em. Sacramento held the collection of G-Leaguers wearing Trail Blazers’ uniforms to just 31.6% shooting on Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. But the Kings have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 95 in their last contest. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a win by double-digits — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win by 20 or more points. Sacramento is missing two key pieces to what was already a limited rotation of players. Kevin Huerter has only played in two minutes in the last 16 games after injuring his left shoulder on March 18th. Malik Monk has played just one minute in their last ten games after he sprained his right MCL. Both losses are critical. Huerter is their best 3-point shooter. His presence on the perimeter opens up space for De’Aaron Fox to drive the lane — and he is an important target for Domantas Sabonis in his point forward role. Monk provides instant offense off the bench and is in line to win the Sixth Man of the Year award. In their last five games, they are only making 44.7% of their shots which has resulted in 112.6 Points-Per-Game — and those marks represent -3.0% and -4.0 PPG drops from their season averages.

FINAL TAKE: The Warriors will be without Gary Payton II with his left calf strain — but he has missed their last three games as well. These two teams split their four regular season games but the Kings won the most recent two contests after a 134-133 victory on the road on January 25th. Golden State has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games when avenging a loss where they surrendered 110 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games when motivated by double revenge. 25* NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year with the Golden State Warriors (543) minus the points versus the Sacramento Kings (544). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 1:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Orlando Magic (512) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (511). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-35) has lost three games in a row after their 125-113 loss at Philadelphia as a 6-point underdog on Friday. Milwaukee (49-32) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 125-107 loss at Oklahoma City as a 14-point underdog on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MAGIC MINUS THE POINTS: Both teams have things to still play for this afternoon. The Bucks need a win to secure the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race. The Magic are currently the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference — but a loss could see them fall all the way to the ninth seed given the logjam in the playoff race and their being on the losing end of several tie-breakers. Wendall Carter is listed as questionable for Orlando — but Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for Milwaukee. The Magic have not covered the point spread in their three-game losing streak with all three of those losses being by 12 or more points— but they have covered the points spread in 9 straight games after failing to cover the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after losing three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after losing three games in a row by double-digits. Orlando returns home for this one where they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Milwaukee has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss on the road by double-digits. The Bucks have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last seven games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 31 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Milwaukee concludes their regular season on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games as an underdog of up to six points or as a pick ‘em.

FINAL TAKE: The Bucks have won the last two games against the Magic after their 117-99 upset win at home against them as a 2-point underdog on Wednesday. Orlando has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 37 games at home when playing with double-revenge. 10* NBA Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Orlando Magic (512) minus the points versus the Milwaukee Bucks (511). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). THE SITUATION: Sacramento (45-35) has lost two games in a row as well as four of their last five after their 135-123 upset loss to New Orleans as a 1-point  favorite last night. Phoenix (47-33) snapped a two-game losing streak with a 124-108 win in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE KINGS PLUS THE POINTS: Sacramento misses the injured Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter which leaves their depth pretty thin. Huerter helps with the spacing on the court since he is primarily a three-point shooter. Monk provided instant offense off the bench and may still win the Sixth Man of the Year award. But the Kings still have De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis -- and they did make 54.8% of their shots last night against the Pelicans. Head coach Mike Brown will want a better effort on defense after they allowed New Orleans to make 57.0% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 31 games. Sacramento has covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing their previous opponent to make 55% or more of their shots including seven of their ten games under those circumstances this season. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after allowing 130 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, the Kings have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 34 games after a loss on their home court — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after an upset loss as a home favorite. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after losing two or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 games after not covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Sacramento still has plenty to play for this weekend as the regular season ends on Sunday. They have clinched a spot in the playoffs — but they are fighting for positioning for the Play-In Tournament next week with them being tied with Golden State and the Los Angeles Lakers for the 8th through 10th spots. This is only the fifth time this season when the Kings are playing at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of those 4 previous games. Phoenix enjoyed their best shooting effort in their last four games by making 48.4% of their shots against the Clippers on Wednesday. But the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a straight-up win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit victory against a Pacific Division rival. And while that final score finished Over the 218.5-point total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 34 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Phoenix stays on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games on the road when a pick ‘em or favored by up to six points.

FINAL TAKE: The Suns score 116.2 Points-Per-Game — and Sacramento has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season against teams who score at least 116 PPG. The Kings score 116.6 PPG — and the Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams who score 116 or more PPG. 25* NBA Bailout Game of the Month with the Sacramento Kings (584) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (583). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). THE SITUATION: Orlando (46-33) has lost two of their last three games after their 118-106 upset loss at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Milwaukee (48-31) snapped a four-game losing streak with their 104-91 victory against Boston as a 3.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bucks broke their string of upset losses by making 53.1% of their shots against the Celtics which was the best shooting effort in their last five games - albeit against a Boston squad playing without Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis defending the interior. But the bigger news was Giannis Antetokounmpo leaving the game in the third quarter with a left calf injury. While it does not look like a season-ender, Antetokounmpo will not take the court tonight. That leaves the Milwaukee offense guard heavy which is not a good look when facing this Magic defense that has outstanding defenders at the guard position. The Bucks raced out to a 63-43 halftime lead yesterday — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after going into halftime with a 15-point or better lead. They went into halftime with a 61-50 lead against New York in their previous game — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after owning two straight double-digit halftime leads. Milwaukee has played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after losing two of their last three games — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after losing three of their last four games. Head coach Doc Rivers will want his team to maintain their recent defensive intensity playing without Antetokounmpo. The Bucks have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 100 points in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. They have held their last five opponents to 111.6 Points-Per-Game which is -4.9 PPG below their season average. But the Bucks are only making 45.1% of their shots in their last five games which has resulted in 107.6 PP — and those marks are -3.7% and -11.9 PPG below their season average. Milwaukee has played 19 of their last 29 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. They have also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog of up to six points. Orlando allowed the Spurs to make 52.3% of their shots last night which was the third straight game where their opponent made at least 50% of their shots against them. The Magic have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing their last three opponents to make at least 47% of their shots — and they have played 4 straight Unders after allowing three straight opponents to make 50% or more of their shots. They have played 6 straight Unders after an upset loss — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss by double-digits. The Under is 19-12-1 in their 32 games playing without a day of rest. And while last night’s final score finished Over the 215.5-point total, Orlando has played 23 of their last 35 games on the road Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Franz Wagner did not play in that game as he is nursing a right ankle injury that leaves him questionable tonight — and Gary Harris is out dealing with an injury. This team has slowed things down on offense by playing at the 27th slowest pace in the league since the All-Star break. Led by Jalen Suggs who is making the first or second All-Defensive team this year, Orlando ranks third in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The Magic have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and Milwaukee has played 13 of their last 21 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: Both teams are still playing for playoff seeding — so the intensity will be high. These two teams last played on December 21st in the 118-114 victory by the Bucks in Milwaukee — and Orlando has played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Orlando Magic (539) and the Milwaukee Bucks (540). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). THE SITUATION: San Antonio (19-59) has lost three of their last four games after their 133-126 loss to Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. Memphis (27-51) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 116-96 loss to Philadelphia as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Led by their rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs are still playing hard late in the season despite being out of the playoff race. They had covered six games in a row before the point spread loss to the surging 76ers with Joel Embiid back from injury. The biggest improvement for this San Antonio team has been on the defensive end of the court. In their last 15 games, the Spurs rank 10th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency which is a big jump from their 22nd ranking for the entire season. However, the offense has only improved to 25th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last 15 games from their 26th ranking overall — so credit goes to their defense for their improved competitiveness. San Antonio has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. One of the things holding the offense back has been the season-ending injury to Devin Vassell who was scoring 19.5 Points-Per-Game. They are only making 44.0% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 106.1 PPG — and those numbers are -2.0% and -6.2 PPG below their season averages. The Spurs have played 9 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s. They have played 4 straight Unders when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Memphis allowed the Sixers to nail 51.9% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last five contests. The Grizzlies have still held their last five opponents to just 106.6 PPG which is -6.1 PPG below their season average. But this team is a M*A*S*H unit with a long list of injured players out for tonight’s game including Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard joining Ja Morant unable to take the court. Memphis is scoring only 102.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.3 PPG below their season average. The Grizzlies have played 19 of their last 27 home games Under the Total after a loss at home — and they have played 14 of their last 19 home games Under the Total after a point spread loss. They have played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after scoring no more than 100 points in their last game. And in their last 16 games after winning two of their last three games, they have played 11 of these games Under the Total. Memphis stays at home where they have played 26 of their last 38 games Under the Total — and they have played 10 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 210s.

FINAL TAKE: The Spurs have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a losing record — and the Grizzlies have played 24 of their last 36 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. 25* NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Antonio Spurs (515) and the Memphis Grizzlies (516). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday.   Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: UConn nailed 10 of their 25 shots (40%) of their shots from behind the arc on Saturday en route to a 50% shooting effort overall. Connecticut made 51.7% of their shots in the Elite Eight against Illinois which was the fourth time in their last five games where they shot at least 50% from the field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after shooting 50% or better from the field in two or more games in a row. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. UConn has won all five of their games by at least 14 points — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. Additionally, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games when playing with one day or less of rest. UConn has covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games this season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. And while the Boilermakers are outscoring their opponents by +14.1 Points-Per-Game, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after 15 games into the season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last contest. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They have all failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after winning five or more games in a row. If there is one area that particularly concerns me about the Boilermakers is their propensity to get sloppy with the basketball. After committing 16 turnovers against the Wolfpack, Purdue is turning the ball over in 17.8% of their possessions when playing on a neutral court, ranking 187th in the nation. I also think there is a big edge in coaching tonight. I think Matt Painter is fine for Purdue — but Dan Hurley is simply at the top of his game right now with the rare mix of combining work ethic with being the top tactician in the game. His teams have always been very good on the defensive end of the court — but he has been tremendous in raising the level of play when his team has the basketball with very tight schemes and formations.

FINAL TAKE: The Huskies have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on a neutral court as a favorite or pick ‘em — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court as a favorite from 6.5 to 12 points. 10* CBB Purdue-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the Connecticut Huskies (676) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (675). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:20 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Purdue (34-4) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 63-50 victory against North Carolina State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Connecticut (36-3) has won 12 games in a row after their 86-72 victory against Alabama as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Both of these teams are outstanding on the offensive end of the court — but I suspect the strength of their play on defense will dictate the flow of this game. Purdue ranks fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing away from home. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, they are allowing -5.0 fewer points per adjusted possessions. They only made 40.0% of their shots on Saturday — but it was their defense that carried the day as they held the Wolfpack to just 36.8% shooting in their 13-point victory. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where neither team scored more than 65 points. They have covered the point spread in all five of their games in the Big Dance — and they have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. UConn ranks second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on a neutral court. They are giving up -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions in their 11 games played on a neutral court. The Huskies have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total on the road after a win by 10 or more points. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 22 of their last 34 road games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while UConn has made at least 50% of their shots in their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after making 50% or more of their shots in two or more games in a row. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Boilermakers have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total in the NCAA Tournament — and the Huskies have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 25* CBB Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Purdue Boilermakers (675) and the Connecticut Huskies (676). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) and the Connecticut Huskies (672) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama (25-11) has won four games in a row with their 89-82 victory against Clemson as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. Connecticut (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 77-52 victory against Illinois as an 8-point favorite in their Elite Eight contest last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: UConn has won all four of their games in the Big Dance by 17 or more points. The Huskies have then played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row by double-digits — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row by 10 or more points. And while they have covered the point spread in five straight games, they have then played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Illinois made the decision to attack the rim and not let the presence of 7’2 Donovan Clingan change how they want to play on offense. In hindsight, that decision was a mistake since the Illini made only of their 38 shots in the 22 minutes that Clingan was on the court for a mere 14 points overall during that span. Alabama players and head coach Nate Oats have indicated they will not make that mistake — but that means they will rely on 3-point shooting or midrange shots which is out of character for this Crimson Tide team. The Huskies rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when they are playing on a neutral court (ten games). UConn allows -12.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing at a neutral site. Their four NCAA Tournament opponents have made only 18 of their 80 shots (22.5%) from behind the arc — and Northwestern shot the best against them with a 26.7% clip from 3-point range but making only four of their 15 shots. Good defensive teams can slow down this Alabama fast-paced attack. They only scored 74 points against Tennessee in the SEC Tournament — and they only put up 72 points in their victory against Grand Canyon in the Round of 32. The Crimson Tide have played 26 of their last 36 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 10 or more points. And while the Huskies average 19 Assists-Per-Game, Alabama has played 44 of their last 71 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams who dish out 16 or more Assists-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: UConn has played 12 of their last 16 games after 15 games into the season Under the Total when facing a team winning 60-80% of their games — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 10* CBB Saturday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) and the Connecticut Huskies (672). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (35-3) has won 11 games in a row after their 77-52 victory against Illinois as an 8-point favorite in their Elite Eight contest last Saturday. Alabama (25-11) has won four games in a row with their 89-82 victory against Clemson as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: Even  with their Final Four run, Alabama only ranks 46th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which is far below their ranking of 14th on the season overall. For comparisons sake, North Carolina State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games which encompasses their run to win the ACC Tournament. The fundamental problem the Crimson Tide have tonight is their porous defense. They rank 189th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. When playing away from home, their defense ranks 175th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and the +9.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions they give up when away from home is the eighth worst disparity in the nation. Alabama has given up 87 and 82 points in their last two games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after allowing 80 or more points in two roomer games in a row. Both those games finished Over the Total — and the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after playing two or more games Over the Total. UConn has covered the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after not allowing more than 55 points in their last game. The Huskies have not allowed more than 58 points in five straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 65 points in four or more games in a row. And in their last 21 games as a double-digit favorite, UConn has covered the point spread 14 times.

FINAL TAKE: UConn has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games in the Big Dance — and they have ten games in a row in the NCAA Tournament by 13 or more points. 10* CBB Alabama-Connecticut TBS-TV Special with the  Connecticut Huskies (672) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (671). Best of luck for us — Frank.         

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) and the Purdue Boilermakers (674) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And while they only scored 21 points in the first half of that game, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not scoring more than 25 points in the first half of their last contest. Head coach Kevin Keatts will want to slow this game down — not only because they are a big underdog but to also protect D.J. Burns from not getting into foul trouble. Look for Keatts to full-court pressure against the Boilermakers as well — not necessarily to force turnovers but simply to slow Purdue’s offensive attack down and get them out of rhythm. The Boilermakers score 83.5 Points-Per-Game — and NC State has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams who score 77 or more PPG. Purdue has played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest between contests. And while they have covered all four of their NCAA Tournament games, they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in three or more games in a row. They have not turned the ball over more than ten times in their four NCAA Tournament games — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not turning the ball over more than 11 times in four or more games in a row.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue is outscoring their opponents by +14.1 Points-Per-Game — and the Wolfpack have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +12.0 or more PPG. The Boilermakers have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) and the Purdue Boilermakers (674). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673) in the Final Four Semifinals of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (33-4) has won 10 of their last 11 games after their 72-66 victory against Tennessee as a 3-point favorite in their Elite Eight game last Sunday. North Carolina State (26-14) has won nine straight games after their 76-64 upset victory against Duke as a 7-point underdog in their Elite Eight game on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: NC State held the Blue Devils to just 32.2% shooting last Sunday which was the best defensive effort of their season. Getting Kyle Filipowski into foul trouble helped — and Duke made only five of their 20 shots (25%) of their shots from behind the arc. The Wolfpack’s improbable run after trailing a bad Louisville team at halftime in the opening round of the ACC Tournament has included seven upset victories. They have survived two overtime games. And they have probably been fortunate with opponent 3-point shooting woes since their last eight opponents have made only 26.2% of their shots behind the arc despite posting a 35.8% opponent shooting percentage from 3-point land after rallying to defeat the Cardinals a month ago. I expect the bubble to burst tonight — and in a big way — against this Boilermakers team. NC State’s run has been centered on the improved and inspired play of D.J. Burns whose playground post-up moves have baffled opponents. But the 275-pounder’s mojo is not going to fly when now being guarded by Zach Edey, who has seven inches and 25 pounds on him. Burns has thrived on taking advantage of opposing defenders leaning in on him to slow him down since he has the agility to spin by those guys. Edey does not need to do that — he’s just going to stand there and raise his arms. He doesn’t even draw fouls because simply staying vertical is imposing enough on potential shooters. Burns can attempt to attack the rim — and Edey’s 7.0% block rate of opposing shots he defends comes into play. The Wolfpack face an even bigger challenge trying to defend Edey — the conundrum is a huge challenge for head coach Kevin Keatts. If he uses Burns to try to defend him, he risks getting him into foul trouble since Edey is so good at drawing fouls. Opposing big men have fouled out in 29 of the 37 games Purdue has played this season. Burns is too small to stop Edey’s hook shot. And he’s slow. Keatts could deploy Mohamed Diarra who is an inch taller than Burns — but he is spotting Edey 85 pounds. Another problem would then be that Burns would be forced to defend on the perimeter (probably against the 6’6 Mason Gillis) since Purdue plays the other four players with Edey out on the perimeter where they all can make 3s. Keatts could try a zone defense to bypass these problems — but then Edey will have even more room to crash the boards for second-shot opportunities. He ranks third in the country by pulling down 18.5% of his team’s missed shots when he is on the court. And this potential zone would open up more 3-point opportunities for the Boilermakers who rank second in the nation by nailing 40.6% of their 3s. Purdue has scored 1.12 Points-Per-Possession in the rare times teams have attempted to deploy a zone defense against them. NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a double-digit win against an ACC rival. And teams in the NCAA Tournament coming off a win that eliminated Duke from the Big Dance have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their next 9 games. Purdue only made 45.3% of their shots against the tough Volunteers defense last week which was the worst shooting effort in their last four games. The Boilermakers did control the boards by out-rebounding Tennessee by a 47-26 margin — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after out-rebounding their last opponent by 20 or more boards. Purdue has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games against teams outside the Big Ten — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: NC State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 80% or more of their games. The Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games in the Big Dance under head coach Matt Painter when favored by nine or more points. 25* College Basketball Game of the Year on the Purdue Boilermakers (674) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (673). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (550). THE SITUATION: Minnesota (53-23) has won two games in a row and nine of their last 11 after their 133-85 victory against Toronto as a 16.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Phoenix (45-31) has won two games in a row and six of their last eight contests after their 122-101 win against Cleveland as a 5.5-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIMBERWOLVES PLUS THE POINTS: Minnesota continues to play well despite being without the injured Karl Anthony-Towns for the last month. The Timberwolves raced out to a 58-42 lead at halftime against the Raptors — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after owning a halftime lead of 15 or more points in their last game. And while that final score finished Over the 214-point Total, they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games on the road after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Minnesota continues to lead the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have held their last five opponents to 42.2% shooting which has resulted in 97.8 Points-Per-Game — and those marks are -2.4% and -8.2 PPG below their season average. The Timberwolves have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games on the road in the second half of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games with the Total set in the 210s. Phoenix made 50.6% of their shots on Wednesday which was the best shooting effort in their last four games. The Suns have then failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a double-digit victory — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games after winning two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: The Timberwolves want to avenge a 133-115 loss at Phoenix on November 15th — and they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 40 opportunities for some sweet same-season revenge. 8* NBA Friday Late Show Bailout with the Minnesota Timberwolves (549) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (550). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). THE SITUATION: Golden State (42-34) has won six games in a row after their 133-110 victory at Houston as a 3-point favorite last night. Dallas (46-30) has won eight of their last nine games after their 109-92 win against Atlanta as an 11.5-point favorite yesterday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Warriors nailed 48.6% of their 3s last night en route to a 58.7% shooting percentage which is their best mark of the season. Expect a visit from the Regression Gods tonight — especially with both Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga questionable with nagging knee injuries. As it is, Golden State has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring 130 or more points in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 22 games Under the Total after a win on the road. The Warriors have covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their last six contests. They have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. And while Golden State has outrebounded their last two opponents by at least ten boards, they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after outrebounding two or more straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. This is their third game since Tuesday — and they have played 15 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing for the third time in four days. Head coach Steve Kerr has his team amping up their intensity on the defensive end of the court as the postseason approaches. They have shaved off from than 7.0 points from their Adjusted Defensive Efficiency number to improve to fifth in the league in that metric. They have held their last five opponents to 42.7% shooting which has resulted in just 102.6 Points-Per-Game that they have allowed — and those numbers are -3.9% and 13.0 PPG below their season averages. But they are also scoring 114.0 PPG over those five games which is -4.0 PPG below their season averages. The Mavericks live-and-die by the 3-point shot. Golden State ranks sixth in the NBA in 3-point defense by holding their opponents to 35.7% shooting from behind the arc — and they are even better on the road by holding their home hosts to 34.9% shooting from 3. Dallas has played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total after a win on their home court. They have also played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games. Additionally, the Mavericks have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in their last game — and they have played 16 of their last 24 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 95 points in their last contest. Head coach Jason Kidd has also overseen a dramatic transformation of the play of his team’s defense. The acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline gave this team a much-needed wing defender and rim protector. Dallas ranks third in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their last ten games. They have not allowed their last six opponents to shoot better than 45.6% from the field — and their last nine opponents have not eclipsed 107 points with three of those foes held to 97 or fewer points. They have held their last five opponents to 42.0% shooting which has resulted in 101.0 PPG which is -5.4% and -14.8 PPG below their season averages. But the Mavs are scoring 114.6 PPG in their last five games which is -3.7 PPG below their season average — and now Luka Doncic is questionable to play this game without a day of rest given “right knee” issues. Dallas has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing without a day of rest. They have played 8 of their last 11 games at home Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Mavericks have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total The Warriors have played 21 of their last 32 games Under the Total in the second half of the season — and they have played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* NBA Western Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Golden State Warriors (547) and the Dallas Mavericks (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (527) and the Los Angeles Clippers (528). THE SITUATION: Denver (53-33) has won two games in a row and six of their last eight contests after their 110-105 victory against San Antonio as a 16-point favorite on Tuesday. Los Angeles (47-28) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 109-95 loss at Sacramento as a 3-point underdog on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It looks like Denver will be without Jamal Murray for the seventh straight game tonight as he nurses a right knee injury. The Nuggets are leaning on their defense playing without their starting point guard. While their scoring is down -1.9 Points-Per-Game in their last five games without him, they have held their last five opponents to just 44.7% shooting which has resulted in 104.8 PPG. Denver has held their last two opponents to 105 and 101 points — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 105 points in two or more games in a row. They have also played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total after winning two or more games in a row — and they have played 13 of their last 18 games on the road Under the Total after a point spread loss. On the road, the Nuggets are scoring 110.9 PPG which is -3.6 fewer PPG than their season average. Denver has played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s. They have also played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season. Los Angeles only made 40.8% of their shots on Tuesday in what was the worst shooting effort in their last eight games. Unfortunately for the Clippers, that might not have been an outlier performance when considering they were without Kawhi Leonard who is not expected to play tonight either given his right knee issue. Los Angeles is scoring 113.6 PPG in games without Leonard this season which is -2.7 fewer PPG than their season average. The Clippers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a double-digit loss on the road. And while that game finished Under the 222-point total for that contest, they have then played 27 of their last 41 home games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Los Angeles has only attempted 75 and 76 shots in their last two games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not taking more than 80 shots in two straight games. The Clippers have not covered the point spread in their last two games — and they have only covered the point spread once in their last seven contests. Los Angeles has played 16 of their last 20 home games Under the Total after not covering the point spread in two games in a row — and they have played 15 of their last 21 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. They return home where they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 220s — and they have played 14 of their last 21 home games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or an underdog getting up to six points.  

FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on December 6th with the Clippers winning by a 111-102 score. The Total was set at 227.5 for that game making it the 7th time in their last 10 games that these two teams played a game against each other that finished Under the Total. 10* NBA Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the game between the Denver Nuggets (527) and the Los Angeles Clippers (528). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (681) and the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. But they won the game comfortably because they nailed 56.9% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last five contests. This victory came on the heels of their 85-81 victory at home against Cincinnati back on March 26th — and they have played 4 straight Unders after playing two or more games in a row where 165 or more combined points were scored. The Sycamores have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after playing two games in a row where 75 or more points were scored by both teams. And in their last 8 games after allowing 80 or more points in two or more games in a row, Indiana State has played 6 of those games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 47% of their shots on Tuesday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games — but they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after making at least 47% of their shots in three or more games in a row. This victory came on the heels of their 91-68 victory against UNLV in the quarterfinals last Wednesday — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after winning and covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. They have also played 6 straight Unders after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Pirates have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when playing with one day of rest. And in their last 5 games with the Total set in the 150s, they have played 4 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Indiana State Sycamores (681) and the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682) in the Championship Game of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Indiana State (32-6) reached the finals of this tournament with their 100-90 victory against Utah as a 4.5-point favorite on Tuesday. Seton Hall (24-12) advanced from their semifinal contest in an 84-67 victory against Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SYCAMORES MINUS THE POINTS: Indiana State allowed the Utes to make 52.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 33 games. The Sycamores have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 90 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 24 of their last 34 games after a win by 10 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. And while they have won 10 of their last 11 games with their lone setback being against Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference title game that kept them from making the NCAA Tournament (despite 28 wins at the time), they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning six or seven of their last eight contests. Indiana State does sacrifice defense for their explosive offense most of the time — but there is one area that head coach Josh Schertz has his team focus on when playing on the defensive end of the court. The Sycamores limit their opponents to pulling down only 23.9% of their missed shots when they are playing away from home which is the 11th-best mark in the nation. Their defensive rebounding will be critical tonight since the Pirates rank 19th in the county by rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots. They held Utah to just five offensive rebounds on Tuesday — and they have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games after not allowing their opponent to pull down more than five offensive rebounds in their last game. Indiana State will win this game with their innovative offense under Schertz. They play at the 26th fastest pace in the nation by averaging only 15.9 seconds per possession. The Sycamores lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 59.9% — and they lead the nation by making 62.6% of their shots inside the arc. They fall all the way down 11th in the country with their 38.1% shooting percentage from behind the arc — and they rank sixth in the nation by taking 49.3% of their shots from behind the arc. Led by the bespectacled Robbie Avila, they have scored at least 80 points in nine of their last eleven games. Seton Hall wants to slow this game down and engage in some bully-ball — but the spacing that the Sycamores engage in on offense takes away their opponent's ability to muck things up in the lane. The Pirates only have a 47.5% effective field goal percentage when on the road which ranks 264th in the nation. If they cannot get second chance opportunities, they will struggle to score points. As it is, they rank only 112th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency when playing away from home. They do not force turnovers to increase their potential scoring opportunities either — they rank 130th in the nation by forcing turnovers in only 17.7% of their opponent’s possessions. Seton Hall has covered the point spread in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing for the second time in seven days.  

FINAL TAKE: The Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 road games in tournament action — and the Sycamores have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games when favored. While I think the “home court” edge for Indiana State is overplayed a bit since they are playing on a neutral court that both teams just played on, it certainly does not hurt our cause that the crowd will be mostly cheering on the home state Sycamores. 25* CBB NIT Game of the Year with the Indiana State Sycamores (681) minus the points versus the Seton Hall Pirates (682). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (517) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (518). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (46-30) has won two of their last three games after their 129-113 victory at Utah as a 9.5-point favorite last night. Phoenix (44-31) has won two of their last three games after a 124-111 upset victory as a 1.5-point underdog on Monday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: Cleveland will be without two of their best wing defenders tonight after Dean Wade and Isaac Okoro were both declared out for tonight’s game — but the good news is that Donovan Mitchell is available to play after missing last night’s game due to injury management. Mitchell missed most of March but he did play in the Cavaliers' previous two games at Philadelphia and Denver. Cleveland enjoys a +7.1 Adjusted Net Efficiency margin with Mitchell on the court. From December to February before his broken nose injury, he was scoring 28.1 Points-Per-Game from a 61.5% true shooting percentage — and he was adding 6.5 Rebounds-Per-Game and 5.4 Assists-Per-Game. The Cavaliers pretty much have the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race locked up — but Mitchell asserted that the team needs to raise their confidence against good teams after getting clobbered by the Nuggets by 29 points. Cleveland raced out to a 67-47 halftime lead against the Jazz last night — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after taking a halftime lead of 20 or more points. They continue their five-game road trip that began on Sunday in Denver — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games when playing for the third time in five days. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. And while the Suns score 116.8 PPG, the Cavaliers have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games against teams who average 116 or more PPG. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after a win on the road. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games after a double-digit victory. We were on the Under in that game but Devin Booker went off for 52 points with that final score cruising Over the 222-point total — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 33 games after playing an Over in their last game. The Suns have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after winning two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games when playing for just the second time in five days. Despite playing against the fifth-easiest schedule in the league up until this point, Phoenix ranks only 15th in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Since the All-Star break, they rank 27th in the 3-point attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio and 25th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. And while they do rank seventh in the league in offensive rebounding rate, they now face a Cavaliers team led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen that ranks eighth in the NBA in defensive rebounding rate. Phoenix has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams winning 60-70% of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their 36 home games this season including five of their last seven contests at home.

FINAL TAKE: Cleveland will be looking to avenge a 117-111 loss at home to the Suns on March 11th in a game they played without  Mobley and Max Strus. The Cavs were able to launch 50% of their shots from behind the arc but only made 33.3% of them despite their 36.7% shooting mark from 3-point range this season. Cleveland has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 26 opportunities to exact revenge against their opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games when avenging a loss where they gave up 110 or more points. 10* NBA Wednesday Late Show Bailout with the Cleveland Cavaliers (517) plus the points versus the Phoenix Suns (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES MINUS THE POINTS: Seton Hall comes into this game with momentum after beating their last two opponents in the NIT by 38 combined points. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. They were one of the three teams this season to beat UConn — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning percentage in the 51-60% range. They should get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities against this Bulldogs team that struggles to protect their defensive glass. Seton Hall pulls down 35.6% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the nation. Georgia allows their opponents to rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the country. The Bulldogs have pulled off two straight upset victories in this tournament to reach the semifinals. The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing a game on the road where both teams scored 75 or more points. They ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently rank 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Another problem they are likely to experience tonight is they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. They only pull down 27.3% of their missed shots, ranking 238th in the nation. They also only force turnovers in 16.2% of their opponent's possessions, ranking 240th.

FINAL TAKE: The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court as an underdog or as a pick ‘em. 8* CBB Tuesday Night Discounted Deal with Seton Hall Pirates (664) minus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (663). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664) in the Semifinals of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Georgia (20-16) has won four of their last five games after their 79-77 upset victory at Ohio State as a 9-point underdog last Tuesday. Seton Hall (23-12) has won five of their last six games after their 91-68 victory against UNLV as a 6-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs shot 47.8% from the field against the Buckeyes which was the best shooting effort in their last ten games. Georgia ranked just tenth in the SEC and currently ranks 105th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. In their five games played on a neutral court, the Bulldogs are scoring -12.2 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions. Georgia has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. Their game with Ohio State finished Over the 150-point Total — and they have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total when coming off a game that finished Over the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And in their last 12 games with the Total set in the 140s, the Buckeyes have palled 8 of these games Under the Total. Seton Hall made 56.5% of their shots against the Runnin’ Rebels which was the best shooting effort in their last 19 contests. But the Pirates have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after making 55% or more of their shots in their last game. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after playing a game where 155 or more combined points were scored. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points on their home court. Seton Hall beat North Texas by a 72-58 score in their previous game in the NIT — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after winning two straight games at home by double-digits. They have played 7 straight games Under the Total after winning two games in a row where they covered as the favorite. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest. On the road, the Pirates score -9.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.            

FINAL TAKE: Seton Hall has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when listed as the favorite or a pick ‘em. Georgia has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games in tournament settings. 25* CBB NIT Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (663) and the Seton Hall Pirates (664). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). THE SITUATION: Phoenix (43-31) has lost two of their last three games after their 128-103 upset loss at Oklahoma City as a 1-point favorite on Friday. New Orleans (45-29) has lost two of their last three games after their 104-92 loss to Boston as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Suns allowed the Thunder to make 56.3% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in their last 37 games. Head coach Frank Vogel will be on his team to tighten things up on the defensive end of the court. As it is, Phoenix has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 17 of their last 24 games Under the Total after an upset loss as a road favorite. They have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by double-digits. They stay on the road where they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or as an underdog of up to six points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, the Suns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 21 of their last 34 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Phoenix has also played 16 of their last 25 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. New Orleans only made 39.5% of their shots against the Celtics as they continue to struggle without Brandon Ingram who is out for the rest of the regular season with a left knee contusion. In the five games without him last month, the Pelicans only made 45.1% of their shots resulting in 107.2 Points-Per-Game — and those numbers are -3.6% and -8.0 PPG below their season averages. But New Orleans has tightened things up on defense as they have held their last five opponents to 44.8% shooting and 102.4 PPG which is -1.2% and -7.9 PPG below their season averages. The Pelicans have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game. And while they have only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. New Orleans ranks fourth in the NBA in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they are second in the league by holding their opponents to just 34.6% shooting from behind the arc. Phoenix is a midrange jump-shooting team — and the Pelicans rank second in the NBA in defense against jump shots. At home, the Pelicans have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as a pick ‘em or as a favorite of up to six points. They have also played 9 of their last 11 home games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, New Orleans has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total in the second half of the season against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Pelicans will be looking to avenge a 123-109 upset loss on the road against the Suns as a 2-point road favorite back on January 9th — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge an upset loss to their opponent. 10* NBA Monday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Phoenix Suns (561) and the New Orleans Pelicans (562). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State (657) and the Duke Blue Devils (658) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The second half of Duke’s game with Houston was the second slowest second half in terms of tempo of the entire season in Division I college basketball. There is a clear trend of the Blue Devils’ head coach Job Scheyer to slow down his offense — especially when Duke has the lead. Not coincidentally, the slowest team on offense in the Mike Krzyzewski era as the Blue Devils head coach was in the 2009-10 campaign when Scheyer was the starting point guard for that team. After Duke’s final two losses in the regular season and the ACC Tournament to this Wolfpack team saw 71 and 70 possessions, their three games in the Big Dance have seen 60, 64, and 56 possessions. The Blue Devils averaged 66.5 adjusted possessions in the regular season — but that number has dropped to 63.7 adjusted possessions in their last ten games, ranking 344th in the nation. Duke has played 21 of their last 29 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 19 of their last 25 road games Under the Total after winning two games in a row. They have not allowed more than 55 points in this tournament — and they have then played 6 straight road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. Scheyer benefits from having faced the Wolfpack for the third time since March 4th — the two previous games against him should help inform how they should scheme against him. The Blue Devils have played 17 of their last 24 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished under the Total. Duke has played 20 of their last 32 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total on a neutral court. NC State is also playing at a slower pace. After four of their five games in the ACC Tournament had at least 70 possessions (the exception being their game against Virginia who perennially play at one of the slowest paces in the nation), the Wolfpack have not played a game in the Big Dance with more than 69 possessions including their overtime win against Oakland. In their 12 games played on a neutral court, NC State is holding their opponents to -3.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions than what they give up at home. The Blue Devils make 48.0% of their shots this season — but the Wolfpack have played 5 straight Unders against teams who make at least 48.0% of their shots.  

FINAL TAKE: Duke has played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. And while the Blue Devils are outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG, the Volunteers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +12 or more PPG. 10* CBB NC State-Duke CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the game between the North Carolina State (657) and the Duke Blue Devils (658). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (27-8) has won six of their last eight games after their 54-51 upset win against Houston as a 4-point underdog on Friday. North Carolina State (25-14) has won eight games in a row after their 67-58 upset win against Marquette as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke advanced despite making only 40.8% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last 21 games. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after winning four or five of their last six games. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their last game. Head coach Job Scheyer has his team playing their best defense of the entire season right now. They have not allowed an opponent to generate an effective field goal percentage higher than 43.3%. Their three opponents in the Big Dance have an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency no higher than 85.2 — and Duke only had two better defensive games than that in terms of Adjusted Defensive Efficiency before this tournament started. The Wolfpack make 45.1% of their shots — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who make 45% or more of their shots. Duke has covered the point spread in 4 straight games when playing for the second time in three days. On the road, the Blue Devils are scoring +2.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. Duke has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games in March. And while NC State is outscoring their opponents by +4.1 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. NC State played their best defensive game of the season by holding the Golden Eagles to just 33.3% shooting. Marquette scored at just an 0.84 Points-Per-Possession rate despite ranking 21st in the nation by scoring at an adjusted 1.18 PPP rate. Some of that was just bad shooting luck for the Golden Eagles who could not hit the side of a barn from outside as they only made 4 of 31 shots from behind the arc despite getting tons of open looks. The Wolfpack’s opponents in the Big Dance are making only 23 of their 97 shots from behind the arc. ACC opponents made 36.2% of their 3s against NC State — so I am expecting a visit from the Regression Gods regarding the 23.7% shooting percentage of the Wolfpack’s opponents in this tournament. Of concern for NC State is that they only scored at a 0.97 PPG rate on Friday — and they missed six of their 12 free throws. The Wolfpack has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not making more than 53% of their free throws in their last game. They held Marquette to only 24 points in the first half — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 25 points in the first half of their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time in three days. And while they have covered the point spread in six of their last seven games (with six upset victories in that run), NC State has then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.                                                                                   

FINAL TAKE: The Wolfpack have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court with the Total set from 140 to 144.5. The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year with the Duke Blue Devils (658) minus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (657). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:20 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Purdue Boilermakers (656) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (655) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Purdue (32-4) has won nine of their last ten games after their 80-68 victory against Gonzaga as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. Tennessee (27-8) has won ten of their last 12 games with their 82-75 victory against Creighton as a 3.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOILERMAKERS MINUS THE POINTS: Purdue made 57.1% of their shots including 45% of their 3-pointers to overwhelm the Bulldogs on Friday. Gonzaga did make 49.2% of their shots which was the worst defensive effort in the Boilermakers' last 14 contests. Purdue is making 53.6% of their shots in this Big Dance including 43.3% of their shots from behind the arc. They also own a +55 net rebounding edge in their three games in this tournament. The Boilermakers scored 106 points in their previous game against Utah State — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after scoring 80 or more points in two or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games after winning four or five of their last six games. Purdue has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against teams outside the Big Ten. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral court. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 road games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while the Volunteers are outscoring their opponents by +11.8 Points-Per-Game, the Boilermakers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or PPG. Tennessee has filed top over the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road after winning three of their last four games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games when playing for the second time in the last three days. I worry about this team given the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his first two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. Vescovi was the only player not to play on Friday against the Bluejays — he claims it was because of the flu, but it is suspicious that he could not take the floor at all in this single-elimination tournament. His confidence could be shot. The Volunteers have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games with the Total set in the 140s. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of his last 21 coached games in the NCAA Tournament going back to 2010 during his time with Texas and now the Volunteers. Even worse, when his team was not a double-digit favorite in those games in the Big Dance, his teams failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those 16 contests. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Purdue Boilermakers (656) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (655). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:49 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (654) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (653) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Alabama (24-11) has won three games in a row after their 89-87 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Clemson (24-11) has pulled off their second-straight upset victory in the Big Dance with their 77-72 upset win against Arizona as a 7-point underdog on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: Alabama should build off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after winning three of their last four games. They trailed at halftime by a 54-46 score before holding the Tar Heels to only seven points in the first ten minutes of the second half. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after allowing 45 or more points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when playing with one day of rest. Alabama makes 36.8% of their 3-point shots — and the Tigers are vulnerable to 3-point shooting teams since their opponents take 40.6% of their shots from behind the arc when they are playing on the road, ranking 286th in the nation. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 9 of their 12 games this season when the Total is set at 160 or higher. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games against teams with a winning record. Clemson made 49.2% of their shots against the Wildcats which was the best shooting effort in their last five games. The Tigers are due a visit from the Regression Gods after their three opponents in the Big Dance have missed 58 of their 75 shots from behind the arc. Clemson has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when playing their second game on the road in the last three days. On the road, the Tigers are scoring -2.0 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson makes 46.8% of their shots while holding their opponents to just 41.2% shooting — but the Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games against teams who make at least 46.8% of their shots and hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. 10* CBB Saturday Night Discounted Deal with the Alabama Crimson Tide (654) minus the points versus the Clemson Tigers (653). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:09 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652) in the Elite Eight round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (29-8) has won seven straight games after their 72-69 upset victory against Iowa State as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Connecticut (34-3) has won ten games in a row with their 82-52 victory against San Diego State as a 12-point favorite on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden Arena in Boston, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Illini played their best game on defense in their last five contests by holding the Cyclones to just 39.7% shooting from the field. But defense is not a staple for this Illinois team that ranks 98th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. When playing away from home, they are still allowing +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions — and that is the 316th worst drop in efficiency when compared to a team’s defensive efficiency when playing at home. They rank 129th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their 19 games away from home — and that is not simply a function of playing in hostile environments since they also rank 172nd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency in their eight games played on a neutral court. To make matters worse for head coach Brad Underwood, it is very difficult to prepare for Huskies’ head coach Dan Hurley’s complex offensive sets — especially with only one day to prepare. The Illini only made 42.1% of their shots against the tough Iowa State defense — and that was the worst shooting effort in their last five contests. The Fighting Illini are a powerhouse on that end of the court. They lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in their last ten games — and they also lead the nation in that metric when playing away from home. They score +12.3 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the biggest jump in the nation. They make 47.6% of their shots including 36.4% of their 3-pointers resulting in 85.6 Points-Per-Game on the road which is +1.4 more PPG than their season average. But they allow their opponents to make 45.0% of their shots including 36.1% of their 3s resulting in 78.1 PPG which is +4.9 PPG above their season average. Illinois has played 22 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Over the Total after a point spread win. They have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 150s — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral court. UConn made 46.2% of their shots on Thursday which was the worst shooting effort in their last three games. The Huskies are scoring 82.7 PPG in this Big Dance despite only making 30.6% of their 3-pointers. They make 36.2% of their 3s on the season while ranking number in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. When playing on the road, they fall to second in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, just behind the Illini. They outrebounded the Aztecs by a 50-29 margin — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after outrebounding their previous opponent by +20 or more boards. But the Huskies have played four straight Unders on the strength of their defense and they have not allowed more than 58 points in those four games. A few things about this Under trend. UConn has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 60 points in two or more games in a row — and they have played 14 of their last 22 games Over the Total after playing two or more Unders in a row. They have won all four of those games by at least 16 points — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after winning four or more games in a row by double-digits. They have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams who score 84 or more PPG. On the road, they are also giving up +5.4 more points per 100 adjusted possessions than when they are at home. The Huskies have a great roster but they probably lack the player who can slow down the Illini’s Terrence Shannon.

FINAL TAKE: UConn attempts 24 shots from behind the arc per game — and Illinois has played 13 of their last 14 games Over the Total against teams who take at least 21 shots from 3-point range per game. The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against winning teams — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (651) and the Connecticut Huskies (652). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Creighton (25-9) has won five of their last six games after their 86-73 victory in double-overtime against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (26-8) has won nine of their last 11 games after their 62-58 win against Texas as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bluejays only made 38.7% of their shots against the Ducks last weekend — but they did convert on 15 of their 39 shots (38.5%) of their shots from 3-point range (many of them in the second double overtime period to ruin our Oregon play). Creighton lives and dies by their 3-point shooting — they rank seventh in the nation by taking 48.7% of their shots from behind the arc. Their reliance on 3s could spell trouble when facing this stout Volunteers defense that ranks 28th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 30.9% of their 3-pointers. The Bluejays score -10.7 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — that discrepancy is the 352nd worst split in the nation. The problem for Creighton is they lack a Plan B if their 3s are not falling. They are dead last in the nation by forcing turnovers in 11.1% of their opponent’s possessions. They only rebound 26.2% of their missed shots, ranking 273rd in the nation. They are the only team left in the Big Dance that has a negative Shot Volume mark relative to what they surrender. But head coach Greg McDermott’s squad is a good defensive team that ranks 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Sacrificing offensive rebounding allows the Bluejays to get back on defense — and not going for turnovers limits the fouls they commit. They have the best defensive foul rate in the nation. They play great half-court defense by ranking 10th in the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.2%. The focus on defense is to get their opponent off the 3-point line — they rank sixth in the nation with their opponents only taking  27.6% of their shots from behind the arc. Made 3s consist of only 25.1% of their opponent’s points which is the 336th lowest mark. Creighton has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Tennessee has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up victory where they did not cover the point spread. This Volunteers team was supposed to be different and not offensively challenged given the emergence of Dalton Knecht. But Knecht and Zakai Zeigler combined to miss 14 of their 16 shots from behind the arc. These primary scorers may be feeling the pressure to compensate for the massive funk that Santiago Vescovi is mired in right now. After scoring 12.9 Points-Per-Game and making 39% of his 3-pointers in the previous two seasons, he limped into this tournament with a 3.3 PPG scoring average in his last seven games while making only 23% of their shots including just 4 of 22 (18.1%) of his shots from behind the arc. In his two NCAA Tournament games, Vescovi has only scored eight combined points with a 33.3% shooting percentage with only two made 3s in his seven attempts. His struggles are impacting the flow of the offense — not only did Tennessee only make 33.8% of their shots against the Longhorns, but they had more turnovers than assists. Creighton will give the Vols the midrange — but Knecht only connects on 39% of his midrange jumpers. Tennessee will rely on its defense that held Texas without a 3-pointer for 24 straight minutes on Saturday. The Volunteers rank third in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their 44.1% opponent’s effective field goal percentage ranks fourth in the nation — and they hold their opponents to 44.1% shooting inside the arc. Tennessee has played 30 of their last 44 road games Under the Total when playing with five or six days of rest.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 140s including all four of their games played on a neutral court. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Creighton Blue Jays (641) and the Tennessee Volunteers (642). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (645) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (646) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (26-8) has won five of their last seven games after their 93-55 victory against James Madison as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Houston (32-4) has won 13 of their last 14 games after their 100-95 victory in overtime against Texas A&M as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the American Airlines Arena in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: Duke nailed 14 of their 28 shots from behind the arc against the Dukes — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after making 50% or more of the 3-pointers in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 60 points in their previous game. The Blue Devils opened their Big Dance with a 64-47 win against Vermont as a 12.5-point favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as the favorites. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last game. They have scored at least 86 points in both their games in the Big Dance — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Houston is an elite defensive team — but getting to play them away from the Fertitta Center helps a lot. The Cougars give up +13.1 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season. 8* CBB Friday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (645) plus the points versus the Houston Cougars (646). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Gonzaga (27-7) has won 11 of their last 12 games after their 89-68 victory against Kansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Purdue (31-4) has won eight of their last nine games after their 106-67 win against Utah State as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Purdue exorcised some of their demons last week after Fairleigh Dickinson knocked them off in the Round of 64 last year despite being a one seed. The Boilermakers had an easy time of it in a 78-50 victory against Grambling State before their 39-point win against the Aggies over the weekend. But this remains a program that has not advanced beyond the Sweet 16 since 2019 — so nerves may play a role for this team that has been National Championship or bust ambitions all season. Purdue made 55.9% of their shots against Utah State which was the best shooting effort in their last eight games. They also held the Aggies to 35.9% shooting which was the best defensive performance in their last 15 contests. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 25 games after a win by 15 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have beaten six teams this season by 30 or more points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of those 5 next contests going into tonight’s showdown. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by 15 or more points. Since getting outrebounded by Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, Purdue has outrebounded their next three opponents by at least 14 boards. But the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after outrebounding two straight opponents by ten or more boards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after outrebounding three straight opponents by ten or more rebounds. Away from home, Purdue scores -7.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions which ranks 337th in the nation in the worst drop-off from the home offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs hold their opponents to 40.2% shooting — and the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or lower. And while Gonzaga outscores their opponents by +16.2 Points-Per-Game, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after 15 games into the season against teams outscoring their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. There is a national perception that this is a down year for head coach Mark Few’s Bulldogs — but this is a better team since Few inserted Ben Gregg into the starting lineup in mid-January. The 6’10 big man makes 38.6% of his 3-pointers — his ability to play on the perimeter opens up space for superstar point guard Ryan Nembhard and Graham Ike to operate their pick-and-rolls with plenty of room. Gonzaga ranks ninth in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency in their last ten games led by a nearly unstoppable offense that ranks third in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency during that span. They lead the nation in their last ten games with an effective field goal percentage of 61.5% -- leading the nation with a 44.2% clip from behind the arc and ranking fourth with a 59.6% mark from inside the arc. The Bulldogs will slow down the Boilermakers' rebounding edge — they outrebound their opponents by +7.4 Rebounds-Per-Game while ranking 52nd in the nation by pulling down 33.3% of their missed shots. On the road, Gonzaga ranks 29th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they allow -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. The Boilermakers make 49.0% of their shots — but the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after 15 games into the season against teams who make 48% or more of their shots.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown is a rematch of Purdue’s 73-63 victory against the Bulldogs in the Maui Invitational on November 20th. A few things from that game. First, Few had yet to insert Gregg into the starting lineup which unleashed the offensive attack. Second, Gonzaga neutralized the Boilermakers’ rebounding edge with both teams pulling down 38 boards. Third, Purdue’s Zach Edey was not called for a foul while Ike was in foul trouble all game with four personal fouls — that is not likely to happen again. Few has had a long time to consider how to adjust to the Boilermakers’ motion offense — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 road games when avenging a same-season loss. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Underdog of the Year with the Gonzaga Bulldogs (639) plus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (640). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:10 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (631) and the Iowa State Cyclones (632) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Illinois (28-8) has won six straight games and nine of their last ten contests after their 89-63 victory against Duquesne as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. Iowa State (29-7) has won five games in a row and nine of their last ten games after their 67-56 victory against Washington State as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones outlasted the Cougars on Saturday despite only making 40.4% of their shots which was the worst shooting effort in their last six games. Despite that underwhelming performance, Iowa State is still making 47.8% of their shots in their last five games -- and they rank 40th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. And while the Cyclones rank second in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, they allow +7.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions which is the 341st worst drop in that metric when compared to their home court split stats. Illinois has played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after a straight-up win by ten or more points — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Over the Total after winning two or more games in a row. The Fighting Illini have played 18 of their last 23 games Over the Total after scoring 80 or more points. And in their last 22 games when playing for just the second time in seven days, they have played 18 of these games Over the Total. Furthermore, Illinois has played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Illini have played 21 of their 28 games this season Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 15 of their last 18 games after 15 games into this season Over the Total against teams with a winning record. 8* CBB Thursday Late Show O/U Bailout withOver the Total in the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini (631) and the Iowa State Cyclones (632). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the North Carolina Tar Heels (636) minus points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (635) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: North Carolina (29-7) has won two straight games and ten of their last 11 contests after their 85-69 victory against Michigan State as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. Alabama (23-11) has won three of their last four games after their 72-61 victory against Grand Canyon as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at Crytpo.com Arena in Los Angeles, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TAR HEELS MINUS THE POINTS: North Carolina should feed off their momentum tonight as they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a double-digit victory. They have also covered the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after scoring 80 or more points in their last contest. They defeated Wagner by a 90-62 score in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after winning two games in a row by double-digits. Head coach Hubert Davis has this team playing outstanding defense — they rank sixth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. On the road, the Tar Heels have been even better by allowing -1.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — they rank fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama held the Antelopes to just 32.1% shooting which was the best defensive effort in their last 19 contests. But the Crime Tide still allows +9.6 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — and that is the 354th worst discrepancy versus their home defensive metrics. Alabama benefited from playing two mid-major teams in Grand Canyon and Charleston in their first two games in the Big Dance. They lost four of their final six games in the SEC — and one of those victories required overtime against a mediocre Arkansas team. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games with the Total set at 170 or higher. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Tar Heels have covered the point spread in 17 of their 28 games this season against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 8 straight games in the Big Dance. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the North Carolina Tar Heels (636) minus points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (635). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633) in the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Connecticut (33-3) has won nine games in a row after their 75-58 victory against Northwestern as a 13.5-point favorite on Sunday. San Diego State (26-10) has won two in a row and four of their last five after their 85-57 victory against Yale as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES MINUS THE POINTS: I don’t always love laying double-digits but am willing to do it in this instance in this rematch of last year’s National Championship Game. UConn won that game by a 76-59 score — and while they may be even better this season, the Aztecs are not quite as good as that group was last year. While San Diego State ranked eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road last season, they fall to 22nd in that metric when playing away from home this season. The Aztecs give up +4.9 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road versus at home this season — and that is the 308th worst discrepancy in the nation. San Diego State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. The Aztecs' offense is too one-dimensional as they rely too much on big man Jaedon LeDee (who was coming off the bench last year). Huskies head coach has a three-headed monster to slow down LeDee in starters Donovan Clingan and Alex Karaban along with Samson Johnson coming off the bench. San Diego State did make 52.7% of their shots against Yale on Sunday but that was the best shooting effort in their last ten contests. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games on the road after a straight-up win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 road games after winning two or more games in a row. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games when playing for the third time in seven days. UConn’s three losses this season have either come from an ice-cold shooting performance or running into a team on fire from behind the arc. But San Diego State only makes 31.8% of their 3-pointers, ranking 283rd in the nation. The Huskies have won three straight games by 16 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after winning three or more games in a row by 15 or more points. They rank eighth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency after not allowing more than 58 points in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after not allowing more than 65 points in three or more games in a row. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games on the road after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, UConn has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games as a double-digit favorite. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: While San Diego State has revenge on their minds, don’t underestimate the motivation the Huskies have in this game as a measuring stick regarding how this year’s group compares to last year’s squad. UConn has covered the point spread in 36 of their last 55 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against teams with a winning record after 15 games into the season. The Aztecs have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after 15 games into the season against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year with the Connecticut Huskies (634) minus the points versus the San Diego State Aztecs (633). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). THE SITUATION: Cleveland (44-28) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 115-92 victory at home against Charlotte as an 11.5-point favorite on Monday. Charlotte (17-54) has lost five games in a row after that loss two days ago.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers nailed 53.5% of their shots against the Hornets which was the best shooting effort in their last 18 games. Despite that performance, Cleveland is struggling to score points as they continue to play without the injured Donovan Mitchell. They have just a 5-7 record in the last 12 games with Mitchell as he nurses a fractured nose and a nagging leg injury. In their last five games, the Cavs are making 46.4% of their shots but playing at a slower pace — they are scoring only 100.4 Points-Per-Game in those five contests. They have held their last five opponents to 105.4 PPG. Cleveland has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. They have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by 20 or more points. Their victory on Monday eked Over the 206-point total in that game — and they have played 23 of their last 35 games Under the Total after playing a game on the road that finished Over the Total. They had failed to cover the point spread in four of their previous five games — and they have played 21 of their last 31 road games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. Led by Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Cavaliers rank fourth in the league in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Cleveland has played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 8 straight road games Under the Total when favored by 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, the Cavs have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total as a double-digit favorite. They have played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage no higher than .250. Charlotte has not scored more than 98 points in five straight games — and they have not cracked even 93 points in their last three games. With LaMelo Ball out with an injury and Terry Rozier shipped off to Miami at the trade deadline, the Hornets offense is relying on Mikal Bridges as their go-to scorer with rookie Brandon Miller the second option. In their last five games, Charlotte is making only 42.7% of their shots resulting in only 93.8 PPG. They return home after a four-game road trip having played 31 of their last 48 home games Under the Total after losing two games in a row — and they have 10 of their last 11 home games Under the Total after losing two or more games in a row on the road. The Hornets have played 13 of their last 18 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 straight home games Under the Total against an opponent with a winning percentage in the 60-70% range.

FINAL TAKE: Charlotte has played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points — and they have played 16 of 25 games Under the Total when avenging a loss by 20 or more points under head coach Steve Clifford. 25* NBA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Cleveland Cavaliers (547) and the Charlotte Hornets (548). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

At 9:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617) in the Semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. THE SITUATION: Seattle (21-14) has won two games in a row after their 71-57 victory against Evansville as a 9-point favorite yesterday in the Quarterfinals of this tournament. Fairfield (24-12) has won two in a row and six of their last seven after their 77-74 victory against Chicago State as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS: Seattle is a solid team out of the Western Athletic Conference who beat Grand Canyon while losing a second game on the road against them in overtime. They also beat Louisiana Tech and lost in double overtime to Washington. Head coach Chris Victor has his team play very good defense — they rank 64th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency off the strength of their half-court defense. They rank 18th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 46.8%. The Stags live and die by the 3-point shot — but the Redhawks rank seventh in the nation by limiting their opponents to just 29.7% shooting from behind the arc. Seattle should build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. On the road, they are scoring +7.0 more points per 100 adjusted possessions. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 8 of their 11 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. And while Fairfield outscores their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game, Seattle has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Stags nailed 57.7% of their shots yesterday which was the best shooting effort in their last 22 games. But Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. They have only covered the point spread once in their last four games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four contests. And while they have won nine of their last 11 games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after winning eight or more of their last ten games. The Stags are a good offensive team — but they struggle to stop their opponents on the other end of the court. Fairfield ranks 243rd in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The problems are with their interior defense. They allow their opponent to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 303rd in the nation. They also allow their opponents to pull down 30.8% of their missed shots, ranking 268th in the nation. Seattle limits their opponents to 41.4% shooting — and the Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against teams with an opponent’s field goal percentage of 42% or less. Fairfield had a 10-4 record when playing at home — but they rank 272nd in the nation with their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home. The Stags have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 51-60% of their games including all five of those circumstances this season.

FINAL TAKE: Fairfield has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their 5 games played on a neutral court this season — and the Redhawks have covered the point spread in 4 straight games on a neutral court when favored or a pick ‘em. Seattle has also covered the point spread in 5 of their 6 games in a tournament setting. 25* CBB College Basketball Invitational Game of the Year with the playing the Seattle Redhawks (618) minus the points versus the Fairfield Stags (617). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:40 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). THE SITUATION: Brooklyn (26-45) has lost two games in a row after their 105-93 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday. Toronto (23-48) has lost ten games in a row after their 112-109 loss at Washington as a 6-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Nets only made 44.7% of their shots against the Knicks on Saturday but it was still their best shooting effort in their last three games. They are scoring only 105.8 Points-Per-Game in their last five games — and they have failed to score more than 108 points in five of their last six contests. They have also failed to score more than 100 points in three of their last six games — so this team that is playing without the injured Cameron Johnson (amongst others) is quite capable of putting up a clunker. Brooklyn has held two of their last three opponents to 105 and 104 points so the effort on defense has been steady as of late. The Nets have played 27 of their last 44 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Additionally, they have played 7 of their last 9 games after failing to score more than 95 points in their last game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after playing a game where no more than 205 combined points were scored. They have played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing two or more games on the road — and they have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have not covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have then played 12 of their last 15 games on the road Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Brooklyn continues their four-game road trip scoring only 109.1 PPG which is -2.0 PPG below their season average. The Nets have played 9 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 25-40%. Toronto is M*A*S*H unit right now as they conduct their soft tank job — they are missing so many players headlined by Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, and R.J. Barrett. Gary Trent, Jr. is their go-to scorer right now. The 109 points they scored on Saturday were their most points in their last six games — they had not scored 104 in their previous five games including two clunkers where they scored only 98 and 89 points. They are only making 44.1% of their shots in their last five games resulting in 107.5 PPG. They have not shot better than 44.1% from the field in four of their last six games. The Raptors have held four of their last six opponents to 112 or fewer points. And while the Wizards’ 47.8% shooting effort on Saturday was the lowest opponent’s field goal percentage in their last five games, Toronto has played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing three or more straight opponents to make 47% or more of their shots from the field. The Raptors have played 17 of their last 24 home games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 6 straight Unders after losing five or more games in a row. They have failed to cover the point spread in five of their last six games — and they have played 26 of their last 37 home games Under the Total after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six contests. They return home where they are scoring only 110.1 PPG which is -3.0 fewer PPG than their season average — but they are holding their guests to 114.5 PPG which is -3.6 PPG lower than their season average. Toronto has played 23 of their last 35 home games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total as an underdog getting 6.5 to 12 points. Furthermore, they have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in March. They have played 9 of their last 13 opponents with a losing record Under the Total in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: The Nets will remember their 121-93 loss in Toronto against the Raptors in their most recent meeting on February 22nd. Brooklyn has played 23 of their last 37 games Under the Total when playing with revenge — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when avenging a loss on the road by 20 or more points. 25* NBA Atlantic Division Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Brooklyn Nets (517) and the Toronto Raptors (518). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847) in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament. THE SITUATION: Utah (20-14) won for the second time in their last three games after their 84-75 victory against UC-Irvine as an 8-point home favorite on Tuesday. Iowa (19-14) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 91-82 victory at home against Kansas State as a 5.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah ranks top-50 in the nation in both Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They have beaten six teams that made the NCAA Tournament: Saint Mary’s, BYU, Colorado, Oregon, and Washington State. They are particularly tough to beat at home where they enjoy an altitude edge in Provo — especially against teams from the east like Iowa. The Utes have a 15-2 record at home with an average winning margin of +16.5 Points-Per-Game. They hold their opponents to 38.7% shooting including a 31.5% mark from behind the arc that results in 67.9 PPG on their home court. They make 49.4% of their shots including 38.9% of their 3-pointers resulting in 84.4 PPG. They rank 18th in the nation in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing at home — and they enjoy the 24th biggest jump in that metric when compared to playing away from home. Utah has covered the point spread in 11 of their 17 games at home this season — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when favored or a pick ‘em. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Pac-12. Iowa made 48.3% of their shots on Tuesday which was the best shooting effort in their last three contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last game. They scored 78 points in their 12-point loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after scoring 75 or more points in two or more games in a row. The Hawkeyes rank 15th in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency — but they struggle on the other end of the court. They rank 151st in the Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they drop to 188th in that metric when playing in hostile environments. Interior defense is a significant problem as they allow their home hosts to make 57.9% of their shots inside the arc. Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games when playing for the second time in seven days. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games as an underdog. And in their last 13 games with the Total set in at 160 or higher, they have failed to cover the point spread 9 times.

FINAL TAKE: Utah outscores their opponents by +5.5 PPG — and Iowa has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 road games against teams who outscore their opponents by +4.0 or more PPG. The Hawkeyes have also failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CBB 2nd Round NIT Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (848) minus the points versus the Iowa Hawkeyes (847). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Grand Canyon Antelopes (839) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (840) in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Grand Canyon (30-4) has won six games in a row after their 75-66 upset victory as a point underdog in their opening game in the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Alabama (22-11) has won two of their last three games after their 109-96 victory against Charleston as an 8.5-point favorite in their first game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Spokane Veterans Arena in Spokane, Washington.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ANTELOPES PLUS THE POINTS: Any concern that this Grand Canyon team was a paper tiger that benefited from an easy schedule out of the Western Athletic Conference got dismissed them dominating one of the best Saint Mary’s teams their legendary head coach Randy Bennett has had there in his tenure. The Antelopes are playing with house money now — and they should feed off their momentum tonight. Grand Canyon has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. And while they have covered the point spread in six straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in two or more games in a row. Head coach Bryce Drew has a veteran team full of transfers who play in a style that makes them very dangerous against this Crimson Tide squad — and all these skills travel on the road. The Antelopes lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.1% when playing away from home. They will challenge Alabama which loves to shoot 3s as they rank 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 30.4% shooting when playing on the road. They also rank fifth in the nation with an opponent’s shooting percentage of 44.8% inside the arc. Grand Canyon does some things to generate more scoring opportunities if their shots are not falling. They rank 81st by pulling down 31.5% of their missed shots when on the road — and the Tide are vulnerable in this department as their opponents to pull down 32.3% of their missed shots in their seven games played on a neutral court, ranking 236th in the nation (and they rank 236th in defensive rebounding overall). Furthermore, the Antelopes lead the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.1% of their opponent’s possessions when playing away from home, ranking 21st in the nation. And the Antelopes' attacking style has them lead the nation in getting to the free throw line when playing on the road — and Alabama is a fouling machine that ranks 342nd in defensive foul rate. The Crimson Tide outscore their opponents by +9.8 Points-Per-Game — and Grand Canyon has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games on the road against teams outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games played on a neutral court. Alabama is adored by the laptops — but their season stats include plenty of the empty calories that come from the luxury of the carefree launching of more and more 3s when bullying lesser opponents. The Crimson Tide made 60% of their shots against the Cougars on Friday — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after making 60% or more of their shots. The problem with Alabama is that do not play defense - they rank 178th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when on the road. They give up +10.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home which is the 355th worst discrepancy from their home defensive efficiency. Alabama has given up 80 or more points in eight straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 80 or more points in three or more games in a row. The Tide live by the three — but they die by relying too much on the 3 as well. They rank 19th in the nation by taking 49.1% of their shots from the field from behind the arc when playing on a neutral court — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral court.

FINAL TAKE: The Antelopes have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage of 80% or higher. 10* CBB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the Grand Canyon Antelopes (839) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (840). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Marquette Golden Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (829) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Marquette (26-9) has won four of their last five games after their 87-69 victory against Western Kentucky as a 14.5-point favorite in their opening-round game in the NCAA Tournament on Friday. Colorado (26-10) has won two straight games as well as ten of their last 11 contests with their 102-100 victory against Florida as a 1-point favorite in their first game in the Big Dance on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Colorado made 63.0% of their shots on Friday — but still needed K.J. Simpson to nail a last-second game-winner to eke out their game with the Gators in a final score that looked more like a Miami Heat contest than a college basketball game. That was the best shooting performance in the Buffaloes’ last 30 contests — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 35 games after scoring 95 or more points in their last game. And while Colorado made 6 of their 10 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a game where they made at least 50% of their 3-pointers. The Buffaloes have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a win by six points or less. Colorado struggled with the Florida press late in the game on Friday — they rank 254th in the nation by turning the ball over in 18.1% of their possessions. Here comes the Golden Eagles who rank 20th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 21.2% of their opponent’s possessions. Marquette got Tyler Kolek back on Friday who was able to play 38 minutes while enjoying a strong second half en route to 18 points and 11 assists. The Golden Eagles have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a double-digit win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when playing for the second time on the road in three days.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their 14 games this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games — and Marquette has covered the point spread in 8 of their 10 games after 15 games into this season against teams winning 60-80% of their games. The Golden Eagles have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s — and the Buffaloes have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games played on a neutral court with the Total set in the 140s. 10* CBB Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Marquette Golden Eagles (830) minus the points versus the Colorado Buffaloes (829). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oregon Ducks (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Oregon (24-11) has won five games in a row after their 87-73 victory against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday. Creighton (24-9) has won four of their last five games after their 77-60 victory against Akron as a 12-point favorite in their first-round game on Thursday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUCKS PLUS THE POINTS: Creighton played their best defensive game in their last 12 contests by holding the Zips to just 37.9% shooting. They also made 56.5% of their shots which was the best shooting effort in their last eight contests. But head coach Greg McDermott’s team is vulnerable because they tend to live by the three but die by the three. They take 48.6% of their shots from behind the arc which is the eighth most aggressive tactic in the nation. They rank 352nd in the percentage of points they generate from inside the arc or the free throw line. If Creighton’s 3-point shots are not falling, they don’t have a Plan B (outside of great defense). They do not crash the glass since they only pull down 25.8% of their missed shots, ranking 284th in the nation. They rank 351st in getting to the free-throw line for some easy points. They do not force turnovers as their opponents cough the ball up just 11.1%  of the time, ranking 361st. And they play at a slow pace by averaging 67.0 adjusted possessions per game, ranking 208th, so their style of play does not help the Regression Gods appear if they are not hitting their 35.6% clip from behind the arc. Creighton was hot on Thursday as they nailed 10 of their 17 shots from 3-point range for a 58.8% clip. But the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after making 55% or more of their shots including five of those seven occasions this season. When playing on their home court, Creighton makes 38.5% of their 3s — but when away from home, that clip drops to 34.6% which is only the 109th-best percentage in the nation. They score -10.6 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home — and that is the 13th worst decline in the country. Additionally, the Bluejays have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite. Creighton has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games against teams winning 60-80% of their games. Oregon is playing their best basketball of the season now that head coach Dana Altman has found the most successful style and identity for this team. Injuries have plagued the Ducks all season with four players suffering season-ending injuries. But after only playing one time before January 13th, their 6’11 big man N’Faly Dante is demonstrating his vast NBA potential. In his last five games, Dante is scoring 20.6 Points-Per-Game while pulling down 8.8 Rebounds-Per-Game and adding 2.8 Steals-Per-Game and 1.6 Blocks-Per-Game. He is likely the best player on the court tonight. And while Creighton averages 11 made 3s per game, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their 9 games this season against teams who make 8 or more 3s per game. Furthermore, the Ducks have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: This matchup means a lot to Altman who was the head coach at Creighton for 16 years before taking the Oregon job in 2010. In Altman, we trust — he has a 16-6-1 ATS mark in the 23 games he has coached in the NCAA Tournament. 5* CBB Round of 32 Underdog of the Year with the Oregon Ducks (793) plus the points versus the Creighton Bluejays (794). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (799) and the Iowa State Cyclones (800) in the Round of 32 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Washington State (25-9) has won two of their last three games after their 66-61 upset victory as a 1-point underdog on Thursday in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Iowa State (28-7) has won four straight games as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 82-65 victory against South Dakota State as a 15-point favorite on Thursday in their opening game in the Big Dance. This game is being played on a neutral court at the CHI Health Center in Omaha, Nebraska.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Washington State has now played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total on the road against teams outside the Pac-12 after their game with the Duquesne finished below the 138-point total. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when playing for the second time in the last three days. They have also played 10 of their last 12 road games Under the Total when playing for the second time in seven days. They have also played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total after winning two of their last three games. Washington State ranks 11th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency when playing on the road. Iowa State is likely to get a visit from the Regression Gods after making 57.9% of their shots on Thursday which was the best shooting effort in their last 24 contests. The Cyclones have played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games. And while they have covered the point spread in four straight games, they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four of their last five games.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court — and Iowa State has played 13 of their last 20 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral court. 8* CBB Saturday Daily Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (799) and the Iowa State Cyclones (800). Best of luck for us — Frank.      

At 9:55 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: TCU (21-12) has lost four of their last six games after their 60-45 loss to Houston as an 11.5-point underdog last Thursday in the Quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament. Utah State (27-6) had their six-game winning streak snapped in an 86-70 loss to San Diego State as a 5-point underdog last Friday in the Semifinals of the Mountain West Conference Tournament. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HORNED FROGS MINUS THE POINTS: TCU shot a season-low 23.3% from the field in their loss to the Cougars who might be the best defensive team in the country. But head coach Jamie Dixon should have his team ready to play tonight. The Horned Frogs have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after failing to score more than 60 points in their last game. And while they missed 18 of their 20 shots from behind the arc in that game, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after failing to make at least 20% of their 3-pointers — including all four of those occasions this season. TCU has been resilient under Dixon’s guidance — they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a double-digit loss. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games after a straight-up loss including eight of their previous 11 losses this season. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after a loss to a Big 12 rival including six of those nine occasions this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. Dixon has his team engage in a style of play that leads to success in single-elimination games because he emphasizes seizing extra possessions. The Horned Frogs rank 20th in the nation by pulling down 35.5% of their missed shots. They also rank 22nd in the nation by forcing turnovers in 20.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They are also an above-average 3-point shooting team that makes 35.0% of their shots from behind the arc when playing away from home. TCU scores +1.5 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing on the road as opposed to being at home. And while the fact that they give up +3.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions on the road is concerning, when looking at just their six games played on a neutral court, they allow -0.1 points per 100 adjusted possessions versus home and true road games — and those six contests include four games against NCAA Tournament teams. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games on the road after a double-digit loss. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning 15 or more of their last 20 contests. I worry about this Aggies team in tournament settings because they lack a Plan B if their shots are not falling. Under first-year head coach Danny Sprinkle, this team plays like his previous Montana State teams. They get to the free throw line — and they are an outstanding shooting team inside the arc where they rank tenth in the nation by making 57.1% of their shots. But they only make 32.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 270th in the nation. They do not create many second chances for themselves on the offensive glass as they pull down only 28.5% of their missed shots, ranking 192nd in the nation. And they force turnovers in only 16.4% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking 223rd in the nation. On the road, they are scoring -2.9 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — so the old-school Bobby Knight style of play on offense does not travel well for them. And they do not play the same quality of defense as those Knight teams from the 1970s and 80s. Utah State ranks 67th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency — and they rank 303rd in the nation by allowing their opponents to make 53.1% of their shots inside the arc. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games in the postseason — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 appearances in the NCAA Tournament. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games after 15 games into the season against teams winning 60-80% of their games including five of their eight games this season under Sprinkle. TCU has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games against teams winning 80% or more of their games — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against those teams when playing them 15 games into the season. This Horned Frogs team has high-profile wins against Houston and Baylor. Lastly, TCU ranks 296th in the nation in Ken Pomeroy’s Luck Factor rankings based on his analytics while the Aggies rank 14th in that metric — so perhaps this is a game that the Regression Gods have circled. 25* CBB NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Game of the Year with the TCU Horned Frogs (771) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (772). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:40 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the James Madison Dukes (761) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (762) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: James Madison (761) rides a 13-game winning streak after their 91-71 victory against Arkansas State as a 5.5-point favorite back on March 11th in the Championship Game of the Sun Belt Conference. Wisconsin (22-13) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 93-87 loss to Illinois as a 4-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DUKES PLUS THE POINTS: James Madison beat Michigan State in the Breslin Center to begin their season — and they are going to be a tough out for any team trying to snap their 13-game winning streak. The Dukes are a dangerous underdog because they do things to force additional possessions if their shots are not falling. They rank 40th in the nation by forcing turnovers in 19.8% of their opponent’s possessions. They also rank 79th in the nation by pulling down 32.0% of their missed shots. They make 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 38th in the nation. They only take 38% of their shots from 3-point land — but they may get more aggressive as an underdog against a Big Ten power in this contest. The Badgers are certainly vulnerable in this regard since they rank 345th in the nation by allowing their opponents to nail 37.4% of their 3-pointers. James Madison nailed a season-high 62.5% of their shots against the Red Wolves while holding them to just 35.6% shooting. I tend to expect an appearance from the Regression Gods after seeing outlier numbers like that but the Dukes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after nailing 60% or more of their shots — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing a game where they made at least 57% of their shots and held their opponent to no better than 43% shooting. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing on a neutral court. Wisconsin has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after a point spread loss. The Badgers are a vulnerable favorite since they play at such a slow pace — they rank 358th in the nation by averaging 19.1 seconds per possession. On the road, Wisconsin scores -4.1 fewer points per 100 adjusted possessions — and they rank 207th in the nation in terms of their drop in Adjusted Net Efficiency when playing away from home.

FINAL TAKE: The Dukes have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games against teams with a winning record. 10* CBB Friday Late Show Bailout with the James Madison Dukes (761) plus the points versus the Wisconsin Badgers (762). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:50 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (779) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (780) in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (20-14) was on a five-game winning streak before their 95-90 loss to Florida as a 2.5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the SEC Tournament on Saturday. Nebraska (23-10) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 98-87 loss to Illinois as a 5-point underdog in the Semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral court at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Texas A&M leads the nation in offensive rebounding by pulling down 42.0% of their missed shots. Crashing the glass travels — the Aggies score +5.8 more points per 100 adjusted possessions when playing away from home. Texas A&M has played 8 straight Overs after scoring 85 or more points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight Overs after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. They have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after playing a game where 165 or more combined points were scored. They have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after winning four or five of their last six games. The Aggies have played 11 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road against teams outside the SEC — and they have played 7 straight Overs when playing on a neutral court. Additionally, they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total as an underdog. Nebraska has played 18 of their last 26 games Over the Total after a double-digit loss to a Big Ten rival. They have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total on the road after allowing 80 or more points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total after winning six or seven of their last eight games — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Over the Total when playing for just the second time in seven days. And while the Cornhuskers have covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games, they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Over the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: Nebraska has played 16 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and Texas A&M has played 13 of their last 18 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-80% range. 8* CBB Friday Night Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the game between the Texas A&M Aggies (779) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (780). Best of luck for us — Frank.